TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13063196
Played Sep 2Finished
Adam Strelec
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111191181012711
Petr Chlad
Away
1.65
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:49 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Strelec to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAdam Strelec above · Petr Chlad below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 97 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Adam Strelec at 62.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Adam Strelec 4–1 Petr Chlad Petr Chlad has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:49What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Chlad
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Strelec
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strelec 1325 vs Chlad 1447
Chlad
Correct
both rated, 123 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strelec 60% vs Chlad 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strelec 50% vs Chlad 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strelec -1 · Chlad +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Chlad) · live re-read · sealed at 38% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strelec form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrelec 2.10 / Chlad 1.65
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Chlad)+0.2pp
TT Cup · #13063196
Strelec2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 33 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back23% 9 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 21
Chlad1.65
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite49% won 32 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it68% 17 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeStrelec4wins
AwayChlad1wins
4 of 5 to a deciderStrelec leads 4–1, and 4 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrelec100%3 of 3
AwayChladn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strelec3Chlad2n = 5Strelec took 3 of 5
S2Strelec5Chlad0n = 5Strelec took 5 of 5
S3Strelec2Chlad3n = 5Chlad took 3 of 5
S4Strelec1Chlad4n = 5Chlad took 4 of 5
S5Strelec3Chlad1n = 4Strelec took 3 of 4
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home360%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricStrelecChladS − CBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match44.641.8+2.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrelecChladBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 213 vs 129 / 26548.8%48.7%104 / 213 vs 129 / 265Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChladStrelec 2.10/Chlad 1.65
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Chlad · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chlad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 2 · 06:40A. Strelec—111197113P. Chlad—88111192
WAug 6 · 05:45A. Strelec—1111811113P. Chlad—57111382
WAug 5 · 05:45A. Strelec—11116113P. Chlad—941151
WJun 30 · 05:45A. Strelec—311114113P. Chlad—11991122
LApr 9 · 06:10A. Strelec—101111742P. Chlad—128511113
A. Strelec10
LSep 7 · 07:45A. Strelec1.83711861L. Snr1.8311511113WSep 7 · 06:45A. Strelec2.0011912113T. Slivka1.735111071WSep 7 · 05:45A. Strelec2.3811114113F. Mandrysz1.53671131LSep 2 · 08:10A. Strelec1.67913111162L. Snr2.101111137113WSep 2 · 06:40P. Chlad1.6788111192A. Strelec2.10111197113WSep 2 · 06:10J. Sindler1.80139513102A. Strelec1.9111111111123WSep 1 · 08:43J. Sindler1.838111151A. Strelec1.8311139113LSep 1 · 07:40J. Sindler1.7311117113A. Strelec2.00891181LSep 1 · 07:10F. Mandrysz1.671111113A. Strelec2.109460WSep 1 · 06:10A. Strelec1.8311711113L. Snr1.83911491
P. Chlad10
LSep 4 · 20:45P. Chlad1.8056120V. Molin1.911111143LSep 4 · 20:10K. Przeczek1.80116611113P. Chlad1.9161111762WSep 4 · 19:10P. Chlad1.911411144113V. Molin1.80165121192LSep 4 · 17:40P. Jokiel2.2511113113P. Chlad1.57981171WSep 2 · 07:40P. Chlad2.0041111113J. Sindler1.73117891LSep 2 · 06:40P. Chlad1.6788111192A. Strelec2.10111197113WSep 2 · 05:40P. Chlad1.671111113L. Snr2.104690LAug 29 · 16:45P. Chlad1.83961181R. Jancak1.8311115113WAug 29 · 15:40P. Chlad1.6113613113B. Jonas2.2011111191WAug 29 · 14:40P. Chlad1.91451111113R. Jancak1.8011116922
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