TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13041096
Played Aug 29Finished
Petr Chlad
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411511116119112
Richard Jancak
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRichard Jancak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr Chlad above · Richard Jancak below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 9-1
Point 78 set 5, 9-1 — our read held Richard Jancak at 54.0%
78 points drawn · the score is 3 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Petr Chlad 3–3 Richard Jancak Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:43What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jancak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chlad 1444 vs Jancak 1339
Chlad
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chlad 60% vs Jancak 40%
Chlad
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chlad 70% vs Jancak 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chlad -1 · Jancak -3
Jancak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chlad) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jancak form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChlad 1.91 / Jancak 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chlad)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13041096
Chlad1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 25 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back30% 15 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Jancak1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 60 of 106
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it66% 35 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeChlad3wins
AwayJancak3wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChladn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayJancak75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chlad2Jancak4n = 6Jancak took 4 of 6
S2Chlad1Jancak5n = 6Jancak took 5 of 6
S3Chlad5Jancak1n = 6Chlad took 5 of 6
S4Chlad4Jancak0n = 4Chlad took 4 of 4
S5Chlad1Jancak2n = 3Jancak took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricChladJancakC − JBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match37.835.2+2.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChladJancakBasisWin rate · lifetime127 / 261 vs 126 / 25048.7%50.4%127 / 261 vs 126 / 250Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChladChlad 1.91/Jancak 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chlad · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chlad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 29 · 14:40P. Chlad—45111193R. Jancak—11116912
LAug 2 · 18:40P. Chlad—810111162R. Jancak—111213113
LJun 28 · 20:10P. Chlad—10790R. Jancak—1211113
LJun 24 · 08:45P. Chlad—55111182R. Jancak—111175113
WJun 24 · 05:45P. Chlad—1111113R. Jancak—9790
WJun 15 · 18:45P. Chlad—11911113R. Jancak—611771
P. Chlad10
LSep 4 · 20:45P. Chlad1.8056120V. Molin1.911111143LSep 4 · 20:10K. Przeczek1.80116611113P. Chlad1.9161111762WSep 4 · 19:10P. Chlad1.911411144113V. Molin1.80165121192LSep 4 · 17:40P. Jokiel2.2511113113P. Chlad1.57981171WSep 2 · 09:25A. Strelec2.10711111072P. Chlad1.65119812113WSep 2 · 07:40P. Chlad2.0041111113J. Sindler1.73117891LSep 2 · 06:40P. Chlad1.6788111192A. Strelec2.10111197113WSep 2 · 05:40P. Chlad1.671111113L. Snr2.104690LAug 29 · 16:45P. Chlad1.83961181R. Jancak1.8311115113WAug 29 · 15:40P. Chlad1.6113613113B. Jonas2.2011111191
R. Jancak10
LSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113WSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 19:15J. Oleksik2.00111169113R. Jancak1.7356111152LSep 6 · 18:15R. Jancak1.8364111192M. Dolezal1.83111197113LSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101LSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LSep 6 · 14:45J. Sindler2.208111011113R. Jancak1.6111612942LSep 6 · 14:15M. Sobota2.50111110113R. Jancak1.50761261LSep 3 · 13:13R. Jancak2.00781171J. Sindler1.7311119113WAug 29 · 16:45P. Chlad1.83961181R. Jancak1.8311115113
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