TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13086974
Played Sep 6Finished
Jan Oleksik
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115116611911115
Richard Jancak
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:49 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeRichard Jancak to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Oleksik above · Richard Jancak below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 86 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Richard Jancak at 56.2%
86 points played in total.
H2H Jan Oleksik 2–3 Richard Jancak Jan Oleksik has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:49What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jancak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oleksik 1257 vs Jancak 1227
Oleksik
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oleksik 80% vs Jancak 0%
Oleksik
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oleksik 50% vs Jancak 30%
Oleksik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oleksik +2 · Jancak -5
Jancak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jancak) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jancak form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOleksik 2.00 / Jancak 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jancak)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13086974
Oleksik2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog59% won 10 of 17
Down 0–1, comes back57% 4 of 7
Jancak1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 66 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it67% 40 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeOleksik2wins
AwayJancak3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderJancak leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOleksik66.7%2 of 3
AwayJancakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oleksik3Jancak2n = 5Oleksik took 3 of 5
S2Oleksik2Jancak3n = 5Jancak took 3 of 5
S3Oleksik4Jancak1n = 5Oleksik took 4 of 5
S4Oleksik2Jancak2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricOleksikJancakO − JBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match38.238.8−0.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOleksikJancakBasisWin rate · lifetime37 / 75 vs 135 / 27149.3%49.8%37 / 75 vs 135 / 271Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JancakOleksik 2.00/Jancak 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Jancak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Oleksik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 30 · 19:10J. Oleksik—1111123R. Jancak—98100
LAug 16 · 18:15J. Oleksik—114961R. Jancak—7111193
LJul 5 · 19:15J. Oleksik—96111192R. Jancak—111197113
WJun 21 · 18:15J. Oleksik—11611113R. Jancak—911461
LJun 14 · 19:15J. Oleksik—101111462R. Jancak—128811113
J. Oleksik10
LSep 6 · 21:20J. Oleksik1.5771191272M. Dolezal2.251171110113WSep 6 · 20:15M. Dolezal2.0087111132J. Oleksik1.73111174113WSep 6 · 17:45L. Jr1.8379111172J. Oleksik1.83111176113WAug 30 · 21:15M. Dolezal1.733380J. Oleksik2.001111113LAug 30 · 20:10M. Dolezal2.00811911113J. Oleksik1.7311911662WAug 30 · 19:10J. Oleksik2.501111123R. Jancak1.5098100WAug 30 · 17:40B. Jonas1.67711121192J. Oleksik2.10115146113LAug 16 · 20:45L. Jr1.8381111113J. Oleksik1.83118991LAug 16 · 20:15J. Oleksik1.91811881D. Stefek1.8011911113LAug 16 · 18:45L. Jr1.91111197113J. Oleksik1.8089111172
R. Jancak10
LSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113WSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 18:15R. Jancak1.8364111192M. Dolezal1.83111197113LSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101LSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LSep 6 · 14:45J. Sindler2.208111011113R. Jancak1.6111612942LSep 6 · 14:15M. Sobota2.50111110113R. Jancak1.50761261LSep 3 · 13:13R. Jancak2.00781171J. Sindler1.7311119113WSep 3 · 11:45J. Sindler1.61121145102R. Jancak2.201061111123LAug 30 · 19:10J. Oleksik2.501111123R. Jancak1.5098100
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