TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13086658
Played Sep 6Finished
Miroslav Dolezal
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811711117114311
Jan Oleksik
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Oleksik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Dolezal above · Jan Oleksik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 84 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Jan Oleksik at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Dolezal 2–2 Jan Oleksik Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:00What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Oleksik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dolezal 1286 vs Oleksik 1267
Dolezal
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dolezal 80% vs Oleksik 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dolezal 80% vs Oleksik 50%
Dolezal
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dolezal +2 · Oleksik +3
Oleksik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Oleksik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oleksik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDolezal 2.00 / Oleksik 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Oleksik)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13086658
Dolezal2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 14 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back32% 6 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Oleksik1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite33% won 8 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it60% 3 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeDolezal2wins
AwayOleksik2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDolezaln = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayOleksik66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dolezal1Oleksik3n = 4Oleksik took 3 of 4
S2Dolezal1Oleksik3n = 4Oleksik took 3 of 4
S3Dolezal0Oleksik4n = 4Oleksik took 4 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricDolezalOleksikD − OBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match34.539.2−4.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDolezalOleksikBasisWin rate · lifetime18 / 38 vs 38 / 7647.4%50%18 / 38 vs 38 / 76Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match34.338.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OleksikDolezal 2.00/Oleksik 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Oleksik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Oleksik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 30 · 21:15M. Dolezal—3380J. Oleksik—1111113
WAug 30 · 20:10M. Dolezal—811911113J. Oleksik—11911662
LAug 9 · 20:50M. Dolezal—5690J. Oleksik—1111113
WAug 9 · 20:10M. Dolezal—1271011143J. Oleksik—1011123122
M. Dolezal10
WSep 6 · 21:20J. Oleksik1.5771191272M. Dolezal2.251171110113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Jr1.839790M. Dolezal1.831111113WSep 6 · 18:15R. Jancak1.8364111192M. Dolezal1.83111197113LAug 30 · 21:15M. Dolezal1.733380J. Oleksik2.001111113WAug 30 · 20:10M. Dolezal2.00811911113J. Oleksik1.7311911662WAug 30 · 18:40B. Jonas1.73111011782M. Dolezal2.00812611113WAug 30 · 18:10R. Jancak1.67411451M. Dolezal2.1011611113WAug 23 · 20:49M. Dolezal2.251111113L. Jr1.578830WAug 23 · 20:15R. Jancak1.67111071192M. Dolezal2.10912111113LAug 23 · 19:15M. Dolezal3.004890J. Jnr1.361111113
J. Oleksik10
LSep 6 · 21:20J. Oleksik1.5771191272M. Dolezal2.251171110113WSep 6 · 19:15J. Oleksik2.00111169113R. Jancak1.7356111152WSep 6 · 17:45L. Jr1.8379111172J. Oleksik1.83111176113WAug 30 · 21:15M. Dolezal1.733380J. Oleksik2.001111113LAug 30 · 20:10M. Dolezal2.00811911113J. Oleksik1.7311911662WAug 30 · 19:10J. Oleksik2.501111123R. Jancak1.5098100WAug 30 · 17:40B. Jonas1.67711121192J. Oleksik2.10115146113LAug 16 · 20:45L. Jr1.8381111113J. Oleksik1.83118991LAug 16 · 20:15J. Oleksik1.91811881D. Stefek1.8011911113LAug 16 · 18:45L. Jr1.91111197113J. Oleksik1.8089111172
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