TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13086398
Played Sep 6Finished
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711911117116711
Jan Oleksik
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Oleksik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Jr above · Jan Oleksik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 91 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Jan Oleksik at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Jr 8–10 Jan Oleksik Lukas Krupnik Jr has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:27What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Oleksik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-10 in 18
Oleksik
Correct
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1309 vs Oleksik 1278
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 40% vs Oleksik 60%
Oleksik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 60% vs Oleksik 40%
Jr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -1 · Oleksik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Oleksik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.83 / Oleksik 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Oleksik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13086398
Jr1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Oleksik1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr6wins
AwayOleksik4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr80%4 of 5
AwayOleksik60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr5Oleksik5n = 10split evenly
S2Jr7Oleksik3n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S3Jr6Oleksik4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S4Jr4Oleksik5n = 9Oleksik took 5 of 9
S5Jr3Oleksik3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrOleksikJ − OBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.440.2+1.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrOleksikBasisWin rate · lifetime226 / 430 vs 39 / 7752.6%50.7%226 / 430 vs 39 / 77Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.439.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OleksikJr 1.83/Oleksik 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Oleksik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Oleksik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 17:45L. Jr—79111172J. Oleksik—111176113
WAug 16 · 20:45L. Jr—81111113J. Oleksik—118991
WAug 16 · 18:45L. Jr—111197113J. Oleksik—89111172
WAug 9 · 18:40L. Jr—11118113J. Oleksik—771181
WJul 5 · 18:15L. Jr—1111113J. Oleksik—7790
LJun 21 · 20:40L. Jr—11115782J. Oleksik—481111113
LJun 21 · 18:45L. Jr—91161142J. Oleksik—119116113
LJun 14 · 20:50L. Jr—151151J. Oleksik—11118113
WJun 14 · 20:15L. Jr—711119113J. Oleksik—11951152
WJun 7 · 21:05L. Jr—119119113J. Oleksik—71181152
L. Jr10
WSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113LSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Jr1.839790M. Dolezal1.831111113LSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112LSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr1.8311701182F. Mandrysz1.83811119113WSep 5 · 05:40L. Jr1.91111198113L. Stempak1.8077111192LSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123WSep 3 · 16:15L. Jr2.00711116113F. Mandrysz1.7311391142WSep 3 · 14:45J. Jnr2.001183101L. Jr1.7381111123
J. Oleksik10
LSep 6 · 21:20J. Oleksik1.5771191272M. Dolezal2.251171110113WSep 6 · 20:15M. Dolezal2.0087111132J. Oleksik1.73111174113WSep 6 · 19:15J. Oleksik2.00111169113R. Jancak1.7356111152WAug 30 · 21:15M. Dolezal1.733380J. Oleksik2.001111113LAug 30 · 20:10M. Dolezal2.00811911113J. Oleksik1.7311911662WAug 30 · 19:10J. Oleksik2.501111123R. Jancak1.5098100WAug 30 · 17:40B. Jonas1.67711121192J. Oleksik2.10115146113LAug 16 · 20:45L. Jr1.8381111113J. Oleksik1.83118991LAug 16 · 20:15J. Oleksik1.91811881D. Stefek1.8011911113LAug 16 · 18:45L. Jr1.91111197113J. Oleksik1.8089111172
Upcoming Matches
L. Jr
J. Oleksik
Nothing scheduled
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