TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12443977
Played Aug 16Finished
Jan Oleksik
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811119811811––
Dominik Stefek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDominik Stefek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Oleksik above · Dominik Stefek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 77 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Dominik Stefek at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:31What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stefek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Oleksik 1252 vs Stefek 1348
Stefek
Correct
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oleksik 20% vs Stefek 60%
Stefek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oleksik 20% vs Stefek 50%
Stefek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oleksik -2 · Stefek +3
Stefek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stefek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oleksik form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOleksik 1.91 / Stefek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stefek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #12443977
Oleksik1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog64% won 7 of 11
Down 0–1, comes back67% 4 of 6
Stefek1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite27% won 3 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricOleksikStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime33 / 68 vs 21 / 5048.5%42%33 / 68 vs 21 / 50Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StefekOleksik 1.91/Stefek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stefek won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
J. Oleksik10
LSep 6 · 21:20J. Oleksik1.5771191272M. Dolezal2.251171110113WSep 6 · 20:15M. Dolezal2.0087111132J. Oleksik1.73111174113WSep 6 · 19:15J. Oleksik2.00111169113R. Jancak1.7356111152WSep 6 · 17:45L. Jr1.8379111172J. Oleksik1.83111176113WAug 30 · 21:15M. Dolezal1.733380J. Oleksik2.001111113LAug 30 · 20:10M. Dolezal2.00811911113J. Oleksik1.7311911662WAug 30 · 19:10J. Oleksik2.501111123R. Jancak1.5098100WAug 30 · 17:40B. Jonas1.67711121192J. Oleksik2.10115146113LAug 16 · 20:45L. Jr1.8381111113J. Oleksik1.83118991LAug 16 · 18:45L. Jr1.91111197113J. Oleksik1.8089111172
D. Stefek10
WSep 5 · 20:40R. Benesz1.773880D. Stefek1.871111113LSep 5 · 19:40I. Jemelka2.001112113D. Stefek1.7391090LSep 5 · 19:10R. Benesz1.911111113D. Stefek1.806990LSep 5 · 18:10D. Stefek2.006490J. Vanous1.731111113LSep 5 · 16:43J. Sindler1.80811411123D. Stefek1.91119119102LSep 5 · 15:40D. Stefek2.2042100O. Skvor1.611111123LSep 5 · 14:40D. Stefek1.913211131M. Lorenc1.8011115153LSep 5 · 13:40D. Stefek1.67116111152J. Sindler2.10611913113LAug 30 · 12:38D. Stefek2.501111641O. Vaclahovsky1.5013711113WAug 30 · 11:40D. Stefek2.63951112113O. Vaclahovsky1.44111181042
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