TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13081750
Played Sep 5Finished
Ivan Jemelka
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191210119––––
Dominik Stefek
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDominik Stefek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingIvan Jemelka above · Dominik Stefek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 62 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Dominik Stefek at 54.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Jemelka 1–1 Dominik Stefek Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:59What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stefek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Jemelka 1352 vs Stefek 1308
Jemelka
Correct
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jemelka 20% vs Stefek 0%
Jemelka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jemelka 50% vs Stefek 10%
Jemelka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jemelka -1 · Stefek -5
Stefek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stefek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJemelka 2.00 / Stefek 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jemelka)-0.3pp
TT Cup · #13081750
Jemelka2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog57% won 21 of 37
Down 0–1, comes back29% 5 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Stefek1.73
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite47% won 16 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it65% 13 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeJemelka1wins
AwayStefek1wins
2 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricJemelkaStefekJ − SBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match46.544.5+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJemelkaStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime47 / 102 vs 42 / 9046.1%46.7%47 / 102 vs 42 / 90Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.539.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StefekJemelka 2.00/Stefek 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jemelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 20 · 13:08I. Jemelka—1110116113D. Stefek—41281162
LAug 20 · 11:40I. Jemelka—107111152D. Stefek—121168113
I. Jemelka10
WSep 5 · 21:10J. Vanous1.73721113112I. Jemelka1.911111911133LSep 5 · 18:40I. Jemelka2.38811961J. Vanous1.5311711113WSep 5 · 17:40I. Jemelka2.101812113R. Benesz1.67161070LSep 3 · 20:44I. Jemelka1.8391191192O. Vaclahovsky1.83115116113LSep 3 · 19:40T. Ogrocki1.8031611113I. Jemelka1.911114561LSep 3 · 19:10P. Chvojka2.001110118113I. Jemelka1.7321231152WSep 3 · 18:10I. Jemelka2.101011712113O. Vaclahovsky1.67126111052WAug 26 · 09:13J. Sevecek1.50612451I. Jemelka2.50111011113LAug 26 · 07:40J. Sevecek1.801111113I. Jemelka1.918920WAug 26 · 07:10J. Matus2.0074100I. Jemelka1.731111123
D. Stefek10
WSep 5 · 20:40R. Benesz1.773880D. Stefek1.871111113LSep 5 · 19:10R. Benesz1.911111113D. Stefek1.806990LSep 5 · 18:10D. Stefek2.006490J. Vanous1.731111113LSep 5 · 16:43J. Sindler1.80811411123D. Stefek1.91119119102LSep 5 · 15:40D. Stefek2.2042100O. Skvor1.611111123LSep 5 · 14:40D. Stefek1.913211131M. Lorenc1.8011115153LSep 5 · 13:40D. Stefek1.67116111152J. Sindler2.10611913113LAug 30 · 12:38D. Stefek2.501111641O. Vaclahovsky1.5013711113WAug 30 · 11:40D. Stefek2.63951112113O. Vaclahovsky1.44111181042LAug 30 · 10:40D. Stefek1.571163101P. Sturma2.2581111123
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