TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13044967
Played Aug 30Finished
Dominik Stefek
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9115111181210114
Oldrich Vaclahovsky
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:55 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeOldrich Vaclahovsky to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDominik Stefek above · Oldrich Vaclahovsky below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 92 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Oldrich Vaclahovsky at 62.5%
92 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Stefek 1–3 Oldrich Vaclahovsky Dominik Stefek has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:55What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Vaclahovsky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Vaclahovsky
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1402 vs Vaclahovsky 1367
Stefek
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 40% vs Vaclahovsky 60%
Vaclahovsky
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 50% vs Vaclahovsky 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek -2 · Vaclahovsky +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Vaclahovsky) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 2.63 / Vaclahovsky 1.44
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Vaclahovsky)-0.0pp
TT Cup · #13044967
Stefek2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog52% won 25 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back27% 6 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 12
Vaclahovsky1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite46% won 25 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it78% 18 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeStefek1wins
AwayVaclahovsky3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderVaclahovsky leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek2Vaclahovsky2n = 4split evenly
S2Stefek1Vaclahovsky3n = 4Vaclahovsky took 3 of 4
S3Stefek2Vaclahovsky2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricStefekVaclahovskyS − VBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match31.034.2−3.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekVaclahovskyBasisWin rate · lifetime41 / 82 vs 105 / 23150%45.5%41 / 82 vs 105 / 231Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VaclahovskyStefek 2.63/Vaclahovsky 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.5%
Vaclahovsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 7 · 12:15D. Stefek—71050O. Vaclahovsky—1112113
LAug 7 · 08:15D. Stefek—31170O. Vaclahovsky—1113113
WAug 4 · 13:20D. Stefek—1111113O. Vaclahovsky—8790
LAug 4 · 12:15D. Stefek—1111111052O. Vaclahovsky—713112113
D. Stefek10
WSep 5 · 20:40R. Benesz1.773880D. Stefek1.871111113LSep 5 · 19:40I. Jemelka2.001112113D. Stefek1.7391090LSep 5 · 19:10R. Benesz1.911111113D. Stefek1.806990LSep 5 · 18:10D. Stefek2.006490J. Vanous1.731111113LSep 5 · 16:43J. Sindler1.80811411123D. Stefek1.91119119102LSep 5 · 15:40D. Stefek2.2042100O. Skvor1.611111123LSep 5 · 14:40D. Stefek1.913211131M. Lorenc1.8011115153LSep 5 · 13:40D. Stefek1.67116111152J. Sindler2.10611913113LAug 30 · 12:38D. Stefek2.501111641O. Vaclahovsky1.5013711113LAug 30 · 10:40D. Stefek1.571163101P. Sturma2.2581111123
O. Vaclahovsky10
LSep 4 · 13:20O. Vaclahovsky1.7710980J. Sevecek1.871211113WSep 4 · 12:15O. Vaclahovsky1.80111192113P. Chvojka1.9179111192WSep 4 · 10:45M. Lorenc1.731011991O. Vaclahovsky2.0012711113WSep 4 · 10:15J. Sevecek1.73115781O. Vaclahovsky2.0071111113WSep 3 · 20:44I. Jemelka1.8391191192O. Vaclahovsky1.83115116113WSep 3 · 20:10O. Vaclahovsky1.731011611113P. Chvojka2.0012811762LSep 3 · 18:40T. Ogrocki1.6112111113O. Vaclahovsky2.201011871LSep 3 · 18:10I. Jemelka2.101011712113O. Vaclahovsky1.67126111052WAug 31 · 23:40O. Vaclahovsky1.801112117113P. Chvojka1.91910131172WAug 30 · 12:38D. Stefek2.501111641O. Vaclahovsky1.5013711113
Upcoming Matches
D. Stefek
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O. Vaclahovsky
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