TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13073916
Played Sep 4Finished
Martin Lorenc
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012117911911––
Oldrich Vaclahovsky
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Lorenc to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Lorenc above · Oldrich Vaclahovsky below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 80 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Martin Lorenc at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Martin Lorenc 2–1 Oldrich Vaclahovsky Oldrich Vaclahovsky has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:51What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Lorenc
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lorenc 1485 vs Vaclahovsky 1364
Lorenc
Wrong
both rated, 121 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lorenc 80% vs Vaclahovsky 60%
Lorenc
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lorenc 60% vs Vaclahovsky 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lorenc +3 · Vaclahovsky +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lorenc)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lorenc form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLorenc 1.73 / Vaclahovsky 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lorenc)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13073916
Lorenc1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite41% won 16 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it60% 9 of 15
Vaclahovsky2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 28 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back24% 8 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeLorenc2wins
AwayVaclahovsky1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderLorenc leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lorenc2Vaclahovsky1n = 3Lorenc took 2 of 3
S2Lorenc1Vaclahovsky2n = 3Vaclahovsky took 2 of 3
S3Lorenc3Vaclahovsky0n = 3Lorenc took 3 of 3
S4Lorenc1Vaclahovsky2n = 3Vaclahovsky took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricLorencVaclahovskyL − VBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match47.042.3+4.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLorencVaclahovskyBasisWin rate · lifetime55 / 129 vs 111 / 24242.6%45.9%55 / 129 vs 111 / 242Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LorencLorenc 1.73/Vaclahovsky 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lorenc · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vaclahovsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WJun 27 · 12:10M. Lorenc—11911113O. Vaclahovsky—511741
WJun 25 · 10:10M. Lorenc—1113119123O. Vaclahovsky—915611102
LJun 19 · 10:45M. Lorenc—71111952O. Vaclahovsky—119711113
M. Lorenc10
LSep 5 · 17:14M. Lorenc1.44713551O. Skvor2.63111111113WSep 5 · 16:10M. Lorenc1.8012911113J. Sindler1.911011571WSep 5 · 14:40D. Stefek1.913211131M. Lorenc1.8011115153WSep 5 · 14:10O. Skvor1.91111171292M. Lorenc1.80891114113WSep 4 · 12:50M. Lorenc1.57812114113P. Chvojka2.25111081192LSep 4 · 11:45M. Lorenc2.0061111592J. Sevecek1.73117611113WSep 4 · 09:45M. Lorenc1.731111143P. Chvojka2.0067120WAug 28 · 17:23P. Chvojka1.71811971M. Lorenc2.0011211113WAug 28 · 15:40M. Lorenc1.8013116113J. Jnr1.911181191LAug 28 · 14:40M. Lorenc1.736111091P. Chvojka2.0011312113
O. Vaclahovsky10
LSep 4 · 13:20O. Vaclahovsky1.7710980J. Sevecek1.871211113WSep 4 · 12:15O. Vaclahovsky1.80111192113P. Chvojka1.9179111192WSep 4 · 10:15J. Sevecek1.73115781O. Vaclahovsky2.0071111113WSep 3 · 20:44I. Jemelka1.8391191192O. Vaclahovsky1.83115116113WSep 3 · 20:10O. Vaclahovsky1.731011611113P. Chvojka2.0012811762LSep 3 · 18:40T. Ogrocki1.6112111113O. Vaclahovsky2.201011871LSep 3 · 18:10I. Jemelka2.101011712113O. Vaclahovsky1.67126111052WAug 31 · 23:40O. Vaclahovsky1.801112117113P. Chvojka1.91910131172LAug 31 · 17:15J. Jnr1.71117128113O. Vaclahovsky1.93511101152LAug 31 · 15:40O. Vaclahovsky1.67641161J. Jnr2.1011116113
Upcoming Matches
M. Lorenc
Nothing scheduled
O. Vaclahovsky
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.