TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13081561
Played Sep 5Finished
Dominik Stefek
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
3112111151315––
Martin Lorenc
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDominik Stefek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDominik Stefek above · Martin Lorenc below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 13-15
Point 71 set 4, 13-15 — our read held Dominik Stefek at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Stefek 0–1 Martin Lorenc Dominik Stefek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:08What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Lorenc
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1259 vs Lorenc 1477
Lorenc
Correct
both rated, 218 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 20% vs Lorenc 60%
Lorenc
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 30% vs Lorenc 60%
Lorenc
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek -2 · Lorenc +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lorenc) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 1.91 / Lorenc 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lorenc)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13081561
Stefek1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog52% won 26 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back29% 7 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Lorenc1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite43% won 18 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it63% 10 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeStefek0wins
AwayLorenc1wins
Lorenc leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricStefekLorencS − LBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match29.042.0−13.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekLorencBasisWin rate · lifetime43 / 92 vs 59 / 13646.7%43.4%43 / 92 vs 59 / 136Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LorencStefek 1.91/Lorenc 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lorenc · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lorenc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 5 · 14:40D. Stefek—3211131M. Lorenc—11115153
D. Stefek10
WSep 5 · 20:40R. Benesz1.773880D. Stefek1.871111113LSep 5 · 19:40I. Jemelka2.001112113D. Stefek1.7391090LSep 5 · 19:10R. Benesz1.911111113D. Stefek1.806990LSep 5 · 18:10D. Stefek2.006490J. Vanous1.731111113LSep 5 · 16:43J. Sindler1.80811411123D. Stefek1.91119119102LSep 5 · 15:40D. Stefek2.2042100O. Skvor1.611111123LSep 5 · 13:40D. Stefek1.67116111152J. Sindler2.10611913113LAug 30 · 12:38D. Stefek2.501111641O. Vaclahovsky1.5013711113WAug 30 · 11:40D. Stefek2.63951112113O. Vaclahovsky1.44111181042LAug 30 · 10:40D. Stefek1.571163101P. Sturma2.2581111123
M. Lorenc10
LSep 5 · 17:14M. Lorenc1.44713551O. Skvor2.63111111113WSep 5 · 16:10M. Lorenc1.8012911113J. Sindler1.911011571WSep 5 · 14:10O. Skvor1.91111171292M. Lorenc1.80891114113WSep 4 · 12:50M. Lorenc1.57812114113P. Chvojka2.25111081192LSep 4 · 11:45M. Lorenc2.0061111592J. Sevecek1.73117611113LSep 4 · 10:45M. Lorenc1.731011991O. Vaclahovsky2.0012711113WSep 4 · 09:45M. Lorenc1.731111143P. Chvojka2.0067120WAug 28 · 17:23P. Chvojka1.71811971M. Lorenc2.0011211113WAug 28 · 15:40M. Lorenc1.8013116113J. Jnr1.911181191LAug 28 · 14:40M. Lorenc1.736111091P. Chvojka2.0011312113
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