TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13082007
Played Sep 5Finished
Martin Lorenc
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210911115117––
Jaroslav Sindler
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Lorenc to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Lorenc above · Jaroslav Sindler below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 76 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Martin Lorenc at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Martin Lorenc 3–2 Jaroslav Sindler Jaroslav Sindler has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:03What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Lorenc
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lorenc 1491 vs Sindler 1348
Lorenc
Correct
both rated, 143 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lorenc 60% vs Sindler 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lorenc 70% vs Sindler 50%
Lorenc
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lorenc +3 · Sindler -1
Lorenc
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lorenc)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLorenc 1.80 / Sindler 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lorenc)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13082007
Lorenc1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite43% won 18 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it63% 10 of 16
Sindler1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog55% won 98 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back33% 27 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeLorenc3wins
AwaySindler2wins
3 of 5 to a deciderLorenc leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLorencn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySindler33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lorenc2Sindler3n = 5Sindler took 3 of 5
S2Lorenc3Sindler2n = 5Lorenc took 3 of 5
S3Lorenc3Sindler2n = 5Lorenc took 3 of 5
S4Lorenc2Sindler3n = 5Sindler took 3 of 5
S5Lorenc2Sindler1n = 3Lorenc took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricLorencSindlerL − SBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match44.042.4+1.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLorencSindlerBasisWin rate · lifetime58 / 134 vs 379 / 74443.3%50.9%58 / 134 vs 379 / 744Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.140.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LorencLorenc 1.80/Sindler 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lorenc · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lorenc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 21 · 12:10M. Lorenc—11101011113J. Sindler—91212652
LAug 10 · 13:23M. Lorenc—981151J. Sindler—11115113
WAug 10 · 11:45M. Lorenc—1111112113J. Sindler—13881142
WJul 24 · 14:40M. Lorenc—71312113J. Sindler—11111091
LJun 25 · 12:10M. Lorenc—11119862J. Sindler—751111113
M. Lorenc10
LSep 5 · 17:14M. Lorenc1.44713551O. Skvor2.63111111113WSep 5 · 14:40D. Stefek1.913211131M. Lorenc1.8011115153WSep 5 · 14:10O. Skvor1.91111171292M. Lorenc1.80891114113WSep 4 · 12:50M. Lorenc1.57812114113P. Chvojka2.25111081192LSep 4 · 11:45M. Lorenc2.0061111592J. Sevecek1.73117611113LSep 4 · 10:45M. Lorenc1.731011991O. Vaclahovsky2.0012711113WSep 4 · 09:45M. Lorenc1.731111143P. Chvojka2.0067120WAug 28 · 17:23P. Chvojka1.71811971M. Lorenc2.0011211113WAug 28 · 15:40M. Lorenc1.8013116113J. Jnr1.911181191LAug 28 · 14:40M. Lorenc1.736111091P. Chvojka2.0011312113
J. Sindler10
LSep 6 · 17:18J. Sindler1.67711791M. Sobota2.1011911113WSep 6 · 15:45J. Sindler1.6713101115113M. Sobota2.10151291372WSep 6 · 14:45J. Sindler2.208111011113R. Jancak1.6111612942WSep 6 · 13:45J. Sindler1.73126115113F. Mandrysz2.00101191172WSep 5 · 16:43J. Sindler1.80811411123D. Stefek1.91119119102LSep 5 · 15:10J. Sindler2.508560O. Skvor1.501111113WSep 5 · 13:40D. Stefek1.67116111152J. Sindler2.10611913113WSep 3 · 13:13R. Jancak2.00781171J. Sindler1.7311119113LSep 3 · 11:45J. Sindler1.61121145102R. Jancak2.201061111123WSep 3 · 10:45J. Sindler2.10911811143L. Zustina1.67112117122
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