TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13068263
Played Sep 3Finished
Jaroslav Sindler
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111128111171412
Lukas Zustina
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:31 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeLukas Zustina to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingJaroslav Sindler above · Lukas Zustina below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 96 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Lukas Zustina at 54.2%
96 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Sindler 1–4 Lukas Zustina Jaroslav Sindler has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:31What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Zustina
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Zustina
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sindler 1323 vs Zustina 1364
Zustina
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sindler 40% vs Zustina 20%
Sindler
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sindler 40% vs Zustina 20%
Sindler
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sindler +1 · Zustina -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zustina)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zustina form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSindler 2.10 / Zustina 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zustina)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13068263
Sindler2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog55% won 98 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back32% 26 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 38
Zustina1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite30% won 7 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it50% 4 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSindler1wins
AwayZustina4wins
1 of 5 to a deciderZustina leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSindlern = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayZustina100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sindler1Zustina4n = 5Zustina took 4 of 5
S2Sindler1Zustina4n = 5Zustina took 4 of 5
S3Sindler2Zustina3n = 5Zustina took 3 of 5
S4Sindler2Zustina1n = 3Sindler took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricSindlerZustinaS − ZBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match35.639.2−3.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSindlerZustinaBasisWin rate · lifetime376 / 739 vs 41 / 8750.9%47.1%376 / 739 vs 41 / 87Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.236.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SindlerSindler 2.10/Zustina 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.2%
Zustina · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sindler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LJul 30 · 14:10J. Sindler—89111142L. Zustina—111178113
WJul 30 · 11:40J. Sindler—11118113L. Zustina—381191
LMar 4 · 14:10J. Sindler—11411101L. Zustina—13118123
LMar 4 · 12:40J. Sindler—97160L. Zustina—1111183
LDec 4 · 09:15J. Sindler—8990L. Zustina—1111113
J. Sindler10
LSep 6 · 17:18J. Sindler1.67711791M. Sobota2.1011911113WSep 6 · 15:45J. Sindler1.6713101115113M. Sobota2.10151291372WSep 6 · 14:45J. Sindler2.208111011113R. Jancak1.6111612942WSep 6 · 13:45J. Sindler1.73126115113F. Mandrysz2.00101191172WSep 5 · 16:43J. Sindler1.80811411123D. Stefek1.91119119102LSep 5 · 16:10M. Lorenc1.8012911113J. Sindler1.911011571LSep 5 · 15:10J. Sindler2.508560O. Skvor1.501111113WSep 5 · 13:40D. Stefek1.67116111152J. Sindler2.10611913113WSep 3 · 13:13R. Jancak2.00781171J. Sindler1.7311119113LSep 3 · 11:45J. Sindler1.61121145102R. Jancak2.201061111123
L. Zustina10
WSep 3 · 16:48F. Mandrysz2.10111169122L. Zustina1.67731111143LSep 3 · 15:45J. Jnr2.10511711113L. Zustina1.6711611652LSep 3 · 15:15F. Mandrysz2.1011111111113L. Zustina1.6713881382WSep 3 · 14:15L. Zustina1.7312118113L. Jr2.001091131WSep 3 · 12:45L. Zustina1.28115114113R. Sedivy3.5051191172WSep 3 · 12:15L. Zustina1.611111113R. Sedivy2.209880LSep 3 · 10:15R. Jancak1.7311511113L. Zustina2.00611841WAug 4 · 16:43P. Chvojka1.7363100L. Zustina2.001111123LAug 4 · 16:15L. Zustina1.6767110P. Chvojka2.101111133LAug 4 · 14:45P. Jokiel1.911181212113L. Zustina1.80611141062
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