TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13070804
Played Sep 3Finished
Filip Mandrysz
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11131181181113118
Lukas Zustina
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:18 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Mandrysz to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Mandrysz above · Lukas Zustina below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 105 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Filip Mandrysz at 59.0%
105 points played in total.
H2H Filip Mandrysz 1–3 Lukas Zustina Filip Mandrysz has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:18What took a side0 for · 5 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Zustina
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Zustina
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mandrysz 1305 vs Zustina 1376
Zustina
Wrong
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mandrysz 40% vs Zustina 60%
Zustina
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mandrysz 60% vs Zustina 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mandrysz -1 · Zustina +3
Zustina
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Zustina) · live re-read · sealed at 41% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMandrysz 2.10 / Zustina 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Zustina)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13070804
Mandrysz2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 56 of 125
Down 0–1, comes back33% 26 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 43
Zustina1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite30% won 7 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it50% 4 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMandrysz1wins
AwayZustina3wins
2 of 4 to a deciderZustina leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMandrysz25%1 of 4
AwayZustinan = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mandrysz4Zustina0n = 4Mandrysz took 4 of 4
S2Mandrysz0Zustina4n = 4Zustina took 4 of 4
S3Mandrysz2Zustina2n = 4split evenly
S4Mandrysz2Zustina2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricMandryszZustinaM − ZBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match44.044.8−0.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMandryszZustinaBasisWin rate · lifetime208 / 414 vs 44 / 9150.2%48.4%208 / 414 vs 44 / 91Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZustinaMandrysz 2.10/Zustina 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Zustina · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mandrysz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LMay 6 · 05:40F. Mandrysz—115111092L. Zustina—911912113
WApr 25 · 08:10F. Mandrysz—12711133L. Zustina—10116111
LFeb 18 · 14:20F. Mandrysz—1171011102L. Zustina—611125123
LFeb 18 · 12:10F. Mandrysz—1181181L. Zustina—81113113
F. Mandrysz10
LSep 7 · 05:45A. Strelec2.3811114113F. Mandrysz1.53671131WSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101WSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163LSep 6 · 13:45J. Sindler1.73126115113F. Mandrysz2.00101191172WSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.831114113L. Stempak1.8371280WSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr1.8311701182F. Mandrysz1.83811119113WSep 5 · 06:10M. Sobota1.73810151292F. Mandrysz2.0011121310113LSep 3 · 16:48F. Mandrysz2.10111169122L. Zustina1.67731111143
L. Zustina10
WSep 3 · 16:48F. Mandrysz2.10111169122L. Zustina1.67731111143LSep 3 · 15:45J. Jnr2.10511711113L. Zustina1.6711611652WSep 3 · 14:15L. Zustina1.7312118113L. Jr2.001091131WSep 3 · 12:45L. Zustina1.28115114113R. Sedivy3.5051191172WSep 3 · 12:15L. Zustina1.611111113R. Sedivy2.209880LSep 3 · 10:45J. Sindler2.10911811143L. Zustina1.67112117122LSep 3 · 10:15R. Jancak1.7311511113L. Zustina2.00611841WAug 4 · 16:43P. Chvojka1.7363100L. Zustina2.001111123LAug 4 · 16:15L. Zustina1.6767110P. Chvojka2.101111133LAug 4 · 14:45P. Jokiel1.911181212113L. Zustina1.80611141062
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