TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13089453
Played Sep 7Finished
Adam Strelec
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116117411113––
Filip Mandrysz
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:40 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeFilip Mandrysz to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAdam Strelec above · Filip Mandrysz below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 64 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Filip Mandrysz at 55.7%
64 points played in total.
H2H Adam Strelec 7–11 Filip Mandrysz Adam Strelec has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:40What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Mandrysz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-11 in 18
Mandrysz
Wrong
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strelec 1318 vs Mandrysz 1361
Mandrysz
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strelec 60% vs Mandrysz 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strelec 40% vs Mandrysz 60%
Mandrysz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strelec -2 · Mandrysz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Mandrysz) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strelec form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrelec 2.38 / Mandrysz 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Mandrysz)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13089453
Strelec2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 34 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back23% 9 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Mandrysz1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 77 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it95% 38 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it73% 53 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrelec3wins
AwayMandrysz7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMandrysz leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrelec75%3 of 4
AwayMandrysz100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strelec4Mandrysz6n = 10Mandrysz took 6 of 10
S2Strelec3Mandrysz7n = 10Mandrysz took 7 of 10
S3Strelec2Mandrysz8n = 10Mandrysz took 8 of 10
S4Strelec5Mandrysz2n = 7Strelec took 5 of 7
S5Strelec1Mandrysz2n = 3Mandrysz took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrelecMandryszS − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.438.5−5.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrelecMandryszBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 214 vs 215 / 42548.6%50.6%104 / 214 vs 215 / 425Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MandryszStrelec 2.38/Mandrysz 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.2%
Mandrysz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Strelec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 07:10A. Strelec—9460F. Mandrysz—1111113
LAug 17 · 06:40A. Strelec—711761F. Mandrysz—11411113
LAug 4 · 08:15A. Strelec—611941F. Mandrysz—11911113
LAug 1 · 10:15A. Strelec—31181382F. Mandrysz—1191111113
LJul 26 · 14:15A. Strelec—4640F. Mandrysz—1111113
WJul 21 · 07:45A. Strelec—11211113F. Mandrysz—611561
WJul 2 · 06:40A. Strelec—1111711113F. Mandrysz—81311882
LMay 22 · 09:20A. Strelec—7980F. Mandrysz—1111113
LMay 22 · 06:15A. Strelec—116811132F. Mandrysz—411114153
WMay 20 · 06:10A. Strelec—11411123F. Mandrysz—9113101
A. Strelec10
LSep 2 · 09:25A. Strelec2.10711111072P. Chlad1.65119812113LSep 2 · 08:10A. Strelec1.67913111162L. Snr2.101111137113WSep 2 · 06:40P. Chlad1.6788111192A. Strelec2.10111197113WSep 2 · 06:10J. Sindler1.80139513102A. Strelec1.9111111111123WSep 1 · 08:43J. Sindler1.838111151A. Strelec1.8311139113LSep 1 · 07:40J. Sindler1.7311117113A. Strelec2.00891181LSep 1 · 07:10F. Mandrysz1.671111113A. Strelec2.109460WSep 1 · 06:10A. Strelec1.8311711113L. Snr1.83911491LAug 28 · 08:38A. Strelec1.736560J. Matus2.001111113LAug 28 · 07:40J. Sevecek1.50111147133A. Strelec2.50991111112
F. Mandrysz10
WSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101WSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163LSep 6 · 13:45J. Sindler1.73126115113F. Mandrysz2.00101191172WSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.831114113L. Stempak1.8371280WSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr1.8311701182F. Mandrysz1.83811119113WSep 5 · 06:10M. Sobota1.73810151292F. Mandrysz2.0011121310113LSep 3 · 16:48F. Mandrysz2.10111169122L. Zustina1.67731111143WSep 1 · 07:10F. Mandrysz1.671111113A. Strelec2.109460
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.