TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13061663
Played Sep 2Finished
Petr Chlad
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811811119117911
Adam Strelec
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:15 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timePetr Chlad to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr Chlad above · Adam Strelec below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 96 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Petr Chlad at 56.6%
96 points played in total.
H2H Petr Chlad 2–4 Adam Strelec Petr Chlad has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:15What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Chlad
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Strelec
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chlad 1454 vs Strelec 1318
Chlad
Wrong
both rated, 137 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chlad 60% vs Strelec 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chlad 70% vs Strelec 50%
Chlad
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chlad +1 · Strelec +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Chlad) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strelec form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChlad 1.67 / Strelec 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Chlad)-0.4pp
TT Cup · #13061663
Chlad1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 34 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it70% 19 of 27
Strelec2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 35 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeChlad2wins
AwayStrelec4wins
5 of 6 to a deciderStrelec leads 4–2, and 5 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChlad66.7%2 of 3
AwayStrelec100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chlad3Strelec3n = 6split evenly
S2Chlad0Strelec6n = 6Strelec took 6 of 6
S3Chlad3Strelec3n = 6split evenly
S4Chlad5Strelec1n = 6Chlad took 5 of 6
S5Chlad2Strelec3n = 5Strelec took 3 of 5
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away350%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricChladStrelecC − SBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match43.344.8−1.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChladStrelecBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 266 vs 104 / 21448.9%48.6%130 / 266 vs 104 / 214Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChladChlad 1.67/Strelec 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.4%
Chlad · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Strelec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 2 · 09:25P. Chlad—119812113A. Strelec—711111072
LSep 2 · 06:40P. Chlad—88111192A. Strelec—111197113
LAug 6 · 05:45P. Chlad—57111382A. Strelec—1111811113
LAug 5 · 05:45P. Chlad—941151A. Strelec—11116113
LJun 30 · 05:45P. Chlad—11991122A. Strelec—311114113
WApr 9 · 06:10P. Chlad—128511113A. Strelec—101111742
P. Chlad10
LSep 4 · 20:45P. Chlad1.8056120V. Molin1.911111143LSep 4 · 20:10K. Przeczek1.80116611113P. Chlad1.9161111762WSep 4 · 19:10P. Chlad1.911411144113V. Molin1.80165121192LSep 4 · 17:40P. Jokiel2.2511113113P. Chlad1.57981171WSep 2 · 09:25A. Strelec2.10711111072P. Chlad1.65119812113WSep 2 · 07:40P. Chlad2.0041111113J. Sindler1.73117891WSep 2 · 05:40P. Chlad1.671111113L. Snr2.104690LAug 29 · 16:45P. Chlad1.83961181R. Jancak1.8311115113WAug 29 · 15:40P. Chlad1.6113613113B. Jonas2.2011111191WAug 29 · 14:40P. Chlad1.91451111113R. Jancak1.8011116922
A. Strelec10
LSep 7 · 07:45A. Strelec1.83711861L. Snr1.8311511113WSep 7 · 06:45A. Strelec2.0011912113T. Slivka1.735111071WSep 7 · 05:45A. Strelec2.3811114113F. Mandrysz1.53671131LSep 2 · 09:25A. Strelec2.10711111072P. Chlad1.65119812113LSep 2 · 08:10A. Strelec1.67913111162L. Snr2.101111137113WSep 2 · 06:10J. Sindler1.80139513102A. Strelec1.9111111111123WSep 1 · 08:43J. Sindler1.838111151A. Strelec1.8311139113LSep 1 · 07:40J. Sindler1.7311117113A. Strelec2.00891181LSep 1 · 07:10F. Mandrysz1.671111113A. Strelec2.109460WSep 1 · 06:10A. Strelec1.8311711113L. Snr1.83911491
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