TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13076544
Played Sep 4Finished
Patrik Jokiel
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119118311117––
Petr Chlad
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:59 and never touched — 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timePetr Chlad to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPatrik Jokiel above · Petr Chlad below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 71 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Petr Chlad at 64.9%
71 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Jokiel 4–13 Petr Chlad Patrik Jokiel has won 4 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:59What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chlad
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-13 in 17
Chlad
Wrong
gap of 9 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jokiel 1399 vs Chlad 1454
Chlad
Wrong
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jokiel 40% vs Chlad 60%
Chlad
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jokiel 40% vs Chlad 60%
Chlad
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jokiel -2 · Chlad +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Chlad) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJokiel 2.25 / Chlad 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Chlad)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13076544
Jokiel2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 75 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back37% 24 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Chlad1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 34 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it70% 19 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJokiel3wins
AwayChlad7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderChlad leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJokiel33.3%2 of 6
AwayChlad75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jokiel6Chlad4n = 10Jokiel took 6 of 10
S2Jokiel6Chlad4n = 10Jokiel took 6 of 10
S3Jokiel2Chlad8n = 10Chlad took 8 of 10
S4Jokiel5Chlad4n = 9Jokiel took 5 of 9
S5Jokiel0Chlad4n = 4Chlad took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJokielChladJ − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.741.9−3.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJokielChladBasisWin rate · lifetime192 / 409 vs 130 / 26646.9%48.9%192 / 409 vs 130 / 266Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChladJokiel 2.25/Chlad 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Chlad · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jokiel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 19 · 12:48P. Jokiel—11912652P. Chlad—6111011113
LJul 19 · 10:15P. Jokiel—1513771P. Chlad—171111113
LJul 11 · 20:10P. Jokiel—11911162P. Chlad—611117113
LJun 28 · 20:40P. Jokiel—7460P. Chlad—1111113
LJun 28 · 18:40P. Jokiel—81161142P. Chlad—117115113
WJun 27 · 08:10P. Jokiel—111112123P. Chlad—9714101
WJun 26 · 09:15P. Jokiel—91111113P. Chlad—117391
LJun 26 · 06:45P. Jokiel—12136672P. Chlad—10111111113
WJun 24 · 06:45P. Jokiel—111111113P. Chlad—281371
LJun 17 · 08:50P. Jokiel—113981P. Chlad—91111113
P. Jokiel10
LSep 5 · 13:10P. Jokiel1.688380O. Skvor1.981111113WSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.82111111113T. Ogrocki1.78135891LSep 5 · 10:40V. Reska1.85111178113P. Jokiel1.8579111162WSep 5 · 10:10O. Skvor1.65661281P. Jokiel1.98111110113LSep 4 · 21:15K. Przeczek1.50111111113P. Jokiel2.50713691WSep 4 · 19:40P. Jokiel2.25119311113V. Molin1.5751111972LSep 4 · 18:40P. Jokiel2.257690K. Przeczek1.571111113LAug 31 · 21:10F. Theodor1.7011611113P. Jokiel1.96911551LAug 31 · 19:40F. Theodor1.574111011113P. Jokiel2.2511912482WAug 31 · 19:10T. Ogrocki1.571281291P. Jokiel2.25101114113
P. Chlad10
LSep 4 · 20:45P. Chlad1.8056120V. Molin1.911111143LSep 4 · 20:10K. Przeczek1.80116611113P. Chlad1.9161111762WSep 4 · 19:10P. Chlad1.911411144113V. Molin1.80165121192WSep 2 · 09:25A. Strelec2.10711111072P. Chlad1.65119812113WSep 2 · 07:40P. Chlad2.0041111113J. Sindler1.73117891LSep 2 · 06:40P. Chlad1.6788111192A. Strelec2.10111197113WSep 2 · 05:40P. Chlad1.671111113L. Snr2.104690LAug 29 · 16:45P. Chlad1.83961181R. Jancak1.8311115113WAug 29 · 15:40P. Chlad1.6113613113B. Jonas2.2011111191WAug 29 · 14:40P. Chlad1.91451111113R. Jancak1.8011116922
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