TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13051911
Played Aug 31Finished
Tomas Ogrocki
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12108111214911––
Patrik Jokiel
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:25 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Ogrocki to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Ogrocki above · Patrik Jokiel below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 87 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Tomas Ogrocki at 60.1%
87 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Ogrocki 22–11 Patrik Jokiel Patrik Jokiel has won 11 of their 33 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:25What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Ogrocki
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-11 in 33
Ogrocki
Wrong
gap of 11 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ogrocki 1366 vs Jokiel 1421
Jokiel
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogrocki 20% vs Jokiel 40%
Jokiel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogrocki 20% vs Jokiel 40%
Jokiel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogrocki -1 · Jokiel +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Ogrocki) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ogrocki form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgrocki 1.57 / Jokiel 2.25
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Ogrocki)-1.0pp
TT Cup · #13051911
Ogrocki1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite58% won 55 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it76% 38 of 50
Jokiel2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 79 of 156
Down 0–1, comes back38% 24 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOgrocki5wins
AwayJokiel5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOgrocki50%3 of 6
AwayJokiel50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ogrocki6Jokiel4n = 10Ogrocki took 6 of 10
S2Ogrocki3Jokiel7n = 10Jokiel took 7 of 10
S3Ogrocki7Jokiel3n = 10Ogrocki took 7 of 10
S4Ogrocki4Jokiel4n = 8split evenly
S5Ogrocki1Jokiel2n = 3Jokiel took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOgrockiJokielO − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.038.0+1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgrockiJokielBasisWin rate · lifetime206 / 441 vs 192 / 40846.7%47.1%206 / 441 vs 192 / 408Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OgrockiOgrocki 1.57/Jokiel 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.9%
Ogrocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jokiel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 19:10T. Ogrocki—1281291P. Jokiel—101114113
WAug 30 · 16:38T. Ogrocki—1111113P. Jokiel—8780
LAug 30 · 16:15T. Ogrocki—9390P. Jokiel—1111113
WAug 29 · 10:40T. Ogrocki—881111113P. Jokiel—11117992
WAug 19 · 15:40T. Ogrocki—11711143P. Jokiel—6116121
WAug 15 · 11:45T. Ogrocki—41111113P. Jokiel—114891
WAug 9 · 06:40T. Ogrocki—11911113P. Jokiel—511381
LAug 7 · 14:15T. Ogrocki—11811762P. Jokiel—411711113
LAug 5 · 18:10T. Ogrocki—41111592P. Jokiel—117611113
LAug 4 · 17:14T. Ogrocki—1161591P. Jokiel—81117113
T. Ogrocki10
LSep 5 · 12:40V. Reska1.5313127113T. Ogrocki2.3811101121LSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.82111111113T. Ogrocki1.78135891LSep 5 · 12:10J. Patrik1.73111111113T. Ogrocki2.00135891LSep 5 · 11:10T. Ogrocki2.2513135101O. Skvor1.57111511123LSep 5 · 09:40V. Reska1.531111113T. Ogrocki2.388690LSep 3 · 21:13P. Chvojka1.739111110113T. Ogrocki2.0011891242WSep 3 · 19:40T. Ogrocki1.8031611113I. Jemelka1.911114561WSep 3 · 18:40T. Ogrocki1.6112111113O. Vaclahovsky2.201011871LSep 3 · 17:40T. Ogrocki2.0071131162P. Chvojka1.73117118113WAug 31 · 20:40T. Ogrocki2.50611811113K. Zeman1.5011511892
P. Jokiel10
LSep 5 · 13:10P. Jokiel1.688380O. Skvor1.981111113WSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.82111111113T. Ogrocki1.78135891LSep 5 · 10:40V. Reska1.85111178113P. Jokiel1.8579111162WSep 5 · 10:10O. Skvor1.65661281P. Jokiel1.98111110113LSep 4 · 21:15K. Przeczek1.50111111113P. Jokiel2.50713691WSep 4 · 19:40P. Jokiel2.25119311113V. Molin1.5751111972LSep 4 · 18:40P. Jokiel2.257690K. Przeczek1.571111113WSep 4 · 17:40P. Jokiel2.2511113113P. Chlad1.57981171LAug 31 · 21:10F. Theodor1.7011611113P. Jokiel1.96911551LAug 31 · 19:40F. Theodor1.574111011113P. Jokiel2.2511912482
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.