TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13080380
Played Sep 5Finished
Tomas Ogrocki
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
131113155111012––
Ondrej Skvor
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:20 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeOndrej Skvor to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Ogrocki above · Ondrej Skvor below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 90 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Ondrej Skvor at 59.3%
90 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Ogrocki 4–7 Ondrej Skvor Tomas Ogrocki has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:20What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Skvor
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Skvor
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ogrocki 1310 vs Skvor 1470
Skvor
Correct
both rated, 159 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogrocki 40% vs Skvor 20%
Ogrocki
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogrocki 50% vs Skvor 20%
Ogrocki
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogrocki -2 · Skvor -4
Skvor
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Skvor) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvor form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgrocki 2.25 / Skvor 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Skvor)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13080380
Ogrocki2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 59 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back28% 22 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 38
Skvor1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 37 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it64% 25 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOgrocki3wins
AwaySkvor7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSkvor leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOgrocki20%1 of 5
AwaySkvor60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ogrocki5Skvor5n = 10split evenly
S2Ogrocki6Skvor4n = 10Ogrocki took 6 of 10
S3Ogrocki3Skvor7n = 10Skvor took 7 of 10
S4Ogrocki4Skvor5n = 9Skvor took 5 of 9
S5Ogrocki1Skvor3n = 4Skvor took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOgrockiSkvorO − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.540.8−1.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgrockiSkvorBasisWin rate · lifetime209 / 450 vs 66 / 12946.4%51.2%209 / 450 vs 66 / 129Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvorOgrocki 2.25/Skvor 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Skvor · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skvor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 11:10T. Ogrocki—13135101O. Skvor—111511123
LAug 30 · 15:15T. Ogrocki—51111982O. Skvor—114311113
LAug 15 · 13:20T. Ogrocki—111161192O. Skvor—313119113
LAug 15 · 10:45T. Ogrocki—711971O. Skvor—11911113
WAug 7 · 16:45T. Ogrocki—612911113O. Skvor—111011652
LAug 7 · 16:15T. Ogrocki—1211491O. Skvor—14911113
LJul 25 · 18:45T. Ogrocki—113881O. Skvor—91111113
WMay 15 · 17:20T. Ogrocki—1111113O. Skvor—6590
WMay 15 · 14:15T. Ogrocki—91111123O. Skvor—1157101
LMay 3 · 08:45T. Ogrocki—11651142O. Skvor—711117113
T. Ogrocki10
LSep 5 · 12:40V. Reska1.5313127113T. Ogrocki2.3811101121LSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.82111111113T. Ogrocki1.78135891LSep 5 · 12:10J. Patrik1.73111111113T. Ogrocki2.00135891LSep 5 · 09:40V. Reska1.531111113T. Ogrocki2.388690LSep 3 · 21:13P. Chvojka1.739111110113T. Ogrocki2.0011891242WSep 3 · 19:40T. Ogrocki1.8031611113I. Jemelka1.911114561WSep 3 · 18:40T. Ogrocki1.6112111113O. Vaclahovsky2.201011871LSep 3 · 17:40T. Ogrocki2.0071131162P. Chvojka1.73117118113WAug 31 · 20:40T. Ogrocki2.50611811113K. Zeman1.5011511892WAug 31 · 20:10K. Zeman1.445880T. Ogrocki2.631111113
O. Skvor10
WSep 5 · 17:14M. Lorenc1.44713551O. Skvor2.63111111113WSep 5 · 15:40D. Stefek2.2042100O. Skvor1.611111123WSep 5 · 15:10J. Sindler2.508560O. Skvor1.501111113LSep 5 · 14:10O. Skvor1.91111171292M. Lorenc1.80891114113WSep 5 · 13:10P. Jokiel1.688380O. Skvor1.981111113WSep 5 · 11:40V. Reska1.61871181O. Skvor2.2011116113LSep 5 · 10:10O. Skvor1.67661281J. Patrik2.10111110113LSep 5 · 10:10O. Skvor1.65661281P. Jokiel1.98111110113LSep 2 · 20:40O. Skvor1.5771070V. Molin2.251112113LSep 2 · 20:10O. Skvor1.537690J. Vanous2.381111113
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