TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13055312
Played Aug 31Finished
Tomas Ogrocki
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611115811118119
Karel Zeman
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKarel Zeman to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Ogrocki above · Karel Zeman below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 91 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Karel Zeman at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Ogrocki 9–14 Karel Zeman Tomas Ogrocki has won 9 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:35What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Zeman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-14 in 23
Zeman
Wrong
gap of 5 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ogrocki 1377 vs Zeman 1374
Ogrocki
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogrocki 40% vs Zeman 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogrocki 30% vs Zeman 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogrocki +1 · Zeman -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Zeman) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zeman form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgrocki 2.50 / Zeman 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Zeman)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13055312
Ogrocki2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 58 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back27% 21 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Zeman1.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 61 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it88% 30 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it73% 48 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOgrocki6wins
AwayZeman4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOgrocki leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOgrocki100%5 of 5
AwayZeman80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ogrocki5Zeman5n = 10split evenly
S2Ogrocki3Zeman7n = 10Zeman took 7 of 10
S3Ogrocki7Zeman3n = 10Ogrocki took 7 of 10
S4Ogrocki1Zeman3n = 4Zeman took 3 of 4
S5Ogrocki3Zeman0n = 3Ogrocki took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricOgrockiZemanO − ZBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.435.0−0.6per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgrockiZemanBasisWin rate · lifetime207 / 442 vs 165 / 29846.8%55.4%207 / 442 vs 165 / 298Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZemanOgrocki 2.50/Zeman 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Zeman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ogrocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 20:10T. Ogrocki—1111113K. Zeman—5880
LAug 21 · 21:10T. Ogrocki—6690K. Zeman—1111113
WAug 21 · 20:15T. Ogrocki—1211113K. Zeman—10890
WAug 19 · 20:33T. Ogrocki—119111113K. Zeman—71191192
WAug 19 · 18:40T. Ogrocki—1171111113K. Zeman—13113862
WAug 11 · 19:15T. Ogrocki—129117113K. Zeman—101191182
LJul 20 · 17:45T. Ogrocki—8880K. Zeman—1111113
LJul 16 · 20:10T. Ogrocki—9530K. Zeman—1111113
LJun 25 · 21:15T. Ogrocki—9101181K. Zeman—11129113
WJun 25 · 19:15T. Ogrocki—1111113K. Zeman—9860
T. Ogrocki10
LSep 5 · 12:40V. Reska1.5313127113T. Ogrocki2.3811101121LSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.82111111113T. Ogrocki1.78135891LSep 5 · 12:10J. Patrik1.73111111113T. Ogrocki2.00135891LSep 5 · 11:10T. Ogrocki2.2513135101O. Skvor1.57111511123LSep 5 · 09:40V. Reska1.531111113T. Ogrocki2.388690LSep 3 · 21:13P. Chvojka1.739111110113T. Ogrocki2.0011891242WSep 3 · 19:40T. Ogrocki1.8031611113I. Jemelka1.911114561WSep 3 · 18:40T. Ogrocki1.6112111113O. Vaclahovsky2.201011871LSep 3 · 17:40T. Ogrocki2.0071131162P. Chvojka1.73117118113WAug 31 · 20:10K. Zeman1.445880T. Ogrocki2.631111113
K. Zeman10
WSep 1 · 21:08K. Zeman1.911111113O. Kus1.807670LSep 1 · 19:40O. Kus2.0011124113K. Zeman1.736101181WSep 1 · 19:10J. Vanous2.205650K. Zeman1.611111113WSep 1 · 18:10K. Zeman1.7381113123K. Przeczek2.0011711101LAug 31 · 20:10K. Zeman1.445880T. Ogrocki2.631111113WAug 31 · 18:40F. Theodor2.00931161K. Zeman1.7311113113LAug 31 · 18:10P. Jokiel1.8371411113K. Zeman1.831112561WAug 30 · 20:45J. Vanous2.10661181K. Zeman1.6711119113LAug 30 · 20:15K. Zeman1.6191380J. Vanous2.201115113LAug 30 · 18:45V. Reska1.80125711113K. Zeman1.91101111542
Upcoming Matches
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K. Zeman
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