TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13071416
Played Sep 3Finished
Tomas Ogrocki
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210111118117––
Oldrich Vaclahovsky
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:41 and never touched — 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timeTomas Ogrocki to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Ogrocki above · Oldrich Vaclahovsky below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 71 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Tomas Ogrocki at 55.9%
71 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Ogrocki 10–8 Oldrich Vaclahovsky Oldrich Vaclahovsky has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:41What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Ogrocki
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-8 in 18
Ogrocki
Correct
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ogrocki 1375 vs Vaclahovsky 1335
Ogrocki
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogrocki 40% vs Vaclahovsky 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogrocki 30% vs Vaclahovsky 50%
Vaclahovsky
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogrocki -1 · Vaclahovsky -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Ogrocki)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ogrocki form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgrocki 1.61 / Vaclahovsky 2.20
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Ogrocki)-1.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13071416
Ogrocki1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 55 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it75% 38 of 51
Vaclahovsky2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 27 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back25% 8 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOgrocki7wins
AwayVaclahovsky3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderOgrocki leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOgrocki100%6 of 6
AwayVaclahovsky75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ogrocki6Vaclahovsky4n = 10Ogrocki took 6 of 10
S2Ogrocki7Vaclahovsky3n = 10Ogrocki took 7 of 10
S3Ogrocki7Vaclahovsky3n = 10Ogrocki took 7 of 10
S4Ogrocki2Vaclahovsky3n = 5Vaclahovsky took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOgrockiVaclahovskyO − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match32.329.1+3.2per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgrockiVaclahovskyBasisWin rate · lifetime208 / 444 vs 108 / 23946.9%45.2%208 / 444 vs 108 / 239Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OgrockiOgrocki 1.61/Vaclahovsky 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.3%
Ogrocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ogrocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 18:40T. Ogrocki—12111113O. Vaclahovsky—1011871
LJun 27 · 12:45T. Ogrocki—5650O. Vaclahovsky—1111113
WJun 27 · 10:40T. Ogrocki—2111110113O. Vaclahovsky—11781272
WJun 22 · 18:15T. Ogrocki—11112113O. Vaclahovsky—781151
WJun 20 · 21:08T. Ogrocki—1111113O. Vaclahovsky—4750
WJun 20 · 18:10T. Ogrocki—1111113O. Vaclahovsky—8350
WJun 18 · 18:40T. Ogrocki—1111113O. Vaclahovsky—7470
LJun 7 · 11:15T. Ogrocki—611741O. Vaclahovsky—11411113
LJun 3 · 15:10T. Ogrocki—981141O. Vaclahovsky—11116113
WMay 3 · 13:15T. Ogrocki—1111113O. Vaclahovsky—7850
T. Ogrocki10
LSep 5 · 12:40V. Reska1.5313127113T. Ogrocki2.3811101121LSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.82111111113T. Ogrocki1.78135891LSep 5 · 12:10J. Patrik1.73111111113T. Ogrocki2.00135891LSep 5 · 11:10T. Ogrocki2.2513135101O. Skvor1.57111511123LSep 5 · 09:40V. Reska1.531111113T. Ogrocki2.388690LSep 3 · 21:13P. Chvojka1.739111110113T. Ogrocki2.0011891242WSep 3 · 19:40T. Ogrocki1.8031611113I. Jemelka1.911114561LSep 3 · 17:40T. Ogrocki2.0071131162P. Chvojka1.73117118113WAug 31 · 20:40T. Ogrocki2.50611811113K. Zeman1.5011511892WAug 31 · 20:10K. Zeman1.445880T. Ogrocki2.631111113
O. Vaclahovsky10
LSep 4 · 13:20O. Vaclahovsky1.7710980J. Sevecek1.871211113WSep 4 · 12:15O. Vaclahovsky1.80111192113P. Chvojka1.9179111192WSep 4 · 10:45M. Lorenc1.731011991O. Vaclahovsky2.0012711113WSep 4 · 10:15J. Sevecek1.73115781O. Vaclahovsky2.0071111113WSep 3 · 20:44I. Jemelka1.8391191192O. Vaclahovsky1.83115116113WSep 3 · 20:10O. Vaclahovsky1.731011611113P. Chvojka2.0012811762LSep 3 · 18:10I. Jemelka2.101011712113O. Vaclahovsky1.67126111052WAug 31 · 23:40O. Vaclahovsky1.801112117113P. Chvojka1.91910131172LAug 31 · 17:15J. Jnr1.71117128113O. Vaclahovsky1.93511101152LAug 31 · 15:40O. Vaclahovsky1.67641161J. Jnr2.1011116113
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