TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13079142
Played Sep 5Finished
Vladislav Reska
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118116119––––
Tomas Ogrocki
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Ogrocki to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVladislav Reska above · Tomas Ogrocki below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 56 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Tomas Ogrocki at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Vladislav Reska 14–11 Tomas Ogrocki Tomas Ogrocki has won 11 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:23What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Reska
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-11 in 25
Reska
Correct
gap of 3 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Reska 1486 vs Ogrocki 1374
Reska
Correct
both rated, 112 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Reska 20% vs Ogrocki 60%
Ogrocki
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Reska 60% vs Ogrocki 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Reska -4 · Ogrocki -1
Reska
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Reska) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ogrocki form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsReska 1.53 / Ogrocki 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Reska)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13079142
Reska1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 72 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it100% 30 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it80% 51 of 64
Ogrocki2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 59 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back28% 22 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeReska6wins
AwayOgrocki4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderReska leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeReska75%3 of 4
AwayOgrocki50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Reska4Ogrocki6n = 10Ogrocki took 6 of 10
S2Reska6Ogrocki4n = 10Reska took 6 of 10
S3Reska7Ogrocki3n = 10Reska took 7 of 10
S4Reska4Ogrocki1n = 5Reska took 4 of 5
S5Reska1Ogrocki2n = 3Ogrocki took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricReskaOgrockiR − OBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.634.8+1.8per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReskaOgrockiBasisWin rate · lifetime239 / 475 vs 209 / 44650.3%46.9%239 / 475 vs 209 / 446Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ReskaReska 1.53/Ogrocki 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Reska · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Reska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 21 · 17:45V. Reska—11781172T. Ogrocki—811119113
WAug 18 · 17:40V. Reska—61111113T. Ogrocki—118791
WJul 22 · 17:40V. Reska—91111113T. Ogrocki—115481
WJul 16 · 17:40V. Reska—1111113T. Ogrocki—9570
LJul 2 · 18:45V. Reska—11980T. Ogrocki—1311113
WJun 30 · 13:45V. Reska—511117173T. Ogrocki—116511152
LJun 24 · 20:15V. Reska—6840T. Ogrocki—1111113
WJun 9 · 21:25V. Reska—1111113T. Ogrocki—6980
LJun 9 · 19:15V. Reska—66111172T. Ogrocki—111188113
WJun 5 · 17:40V. Reska—1115113T. Ogrocki—71360
V. Reska10
WSep 5 · 12:40V. Reska1.5313127113T. Ogrocki2.3811101121LSep 5 · 11:40V. Reska1.61871181O. Skvor2.2011116113WSep 5 · 10:40V. Reska1.83111178113J. Patrik1.8379111162WSep 5 · 10:40V. Reska1.85111178113P. Jokiel1.8579111162LSep 4 · 16:35A. Kanak1.801211113V. Reska1.9110450LSep 4 · 16:10K. Baros1.611111113V. Reska2.205780LSep 4 · 15:10V. Reska2.1011115672J. Volny1.67981111113LSep 4 · 13:40A. Kanak1.679111110113V. Reska2.1011871272WSep 2 · 17:10V. Reska1.671111113O. Coufal2.105780WSep 2 · 15:40V. Reska1.7361111113M. Janik2.00117481
T. Ogrocki10
LSep 5 · 12:40V. Reska1.5313127113T. Ogrocki2.3811101121LSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.82111111113T. Ogrocki1.78135891LSep 5 · 12:10J. Patrik1.73111111113T. Ogrocki2.00135891LSep 5 · 11:10T. Ogrocki2.2513135101O. Skvor1.57111511123LSep 3 · 21:13P. Chvojka1.739111110113T. Ogrocki2.0011891242WSep 3 · 19:40T. Ogrocki1.8031611113I. Jemelka1.911114561WSep 3 · 18:40T. Ogrocki1.6112111113O. Vaclahovsky2.201011871LSep 3 · 17:40T. Ogrocki2.0071131162P. Chvojka1.73117118113WAug 31 · 20:40T. Ogrocki2.50611811113K. Zeman1.5011511892WAug 31 · 20:10K. Zeman1.445880T. Ogrocki2.631111113
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