TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13063600
Played Sep 2Finished
Vladislav Reska
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611117114118––
Michal Janik
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:01 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVladislav Reska to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladislav Reska above · Michal Janik below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 69 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Vladislav Reska at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Vladislav Reska 1–3 Michal Janik Vladislav Reska has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:01What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Reska
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Janik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Reska 1526 vs Janik 1402
Reska
Correct
both rated, 124 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Reska 100% vs Janik 20%
Reska
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Reska 80% vs Janik 40%
Reska
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Reska +5 · Janik -2
Reska
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Reska) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Janik form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsReska 1.73 / Janik 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Reska)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13063600
Reska1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 73 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it100% 30 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it79% 52 of 66
Janik2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 32 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back21% 10 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeReska1wins
AwayJanik3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderJanik leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Reska2Janik2n = 4split evenly
S2Reska0Janik4n = 4Janik took 4 of 4
S3Reska1Janik3n = 4Janik took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricReskaJanikR − JBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match31.037.0−6.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReskaJanikBasisWin rate · lifetime237 / 469 vs 117 / 26750.5%43.8%237 / 469 vs 117 / 267Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.339.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ReskaReska 1.73/Janik 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Reska · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Reska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 27 · 19:40V. Reska—111011113M. Janik—912741
LJun 24 · 20:40V. Reska—118141102M. Janik—711165113
LJun 24 · 19:15V. Reska—6560M. Janik—1111113
LApr 8 · 16:10V. Reska—7490M. Janik—1111113
V. Reska10
WSep 5 · 12:40V. Reska1.5313127113T. Ogrocki2.3811101121LSep 5 · 11:40V. Reska1.61871181O. Skvor2.2011116113WSep 5 · 10:40V. Reska1.83111178113J. Patrik1.8379111162WSep 5 · 10:40V. Reska1.85111178113P. Jokiel1.8579111162WSep 5 · 09:40V. Reska1.531111113T. Ogrocki2.388690LSep 4 · 16:35A. Kanak1.801211113V. Reska1.9110450LSep 4 · 16:10K. Baros1.611111113V. Reska2.205780LSep 4 · 15:10V. Reska2.1011115672J. Volny1.67981111113LSep 4 · 13:40A. Kanak1.679111110113V. Reska2.1011871272WSep 2 · 17:10V. Reska1.671111113O. Coufal2.105780
M. Janik10
WSep 2 · 21:10J. Vanous1.8011910101M. Janik1.9131112123WSep 2 · 19:40V. Molin1.80111330M. Janik1.911315113LSep 2 · 19:10J. Vanous2.10611119113M. Janik1.6711891152WSep 2 · 18:10M. Janik2.001111119113O. Skvor1.7313761132WSep 2 · 16:39O. Skvor1.731011971M. Janik2.0012711113LSep 2 · 15:10O. Coufal2.38119911113M. Janik1.5381111652LSep 2 · 14:10M. Janik2.00571181O. Skvor1.7311117113WAug 27 · 20:38K. Zeman1.80711981M. Janik1.9111811113LAug 27 · 19:40V. Reska2.00111011113M. Janik1.73912741LAug 27 · 19:10F. Theodor2.1071111113M. Janik1.67118431
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