TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13076886
Played Sep 4Finished
Karel Baros
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115117118––––
Vladislav Reska
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:31 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeKarel Baros to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarel Baros above · Vladislav Reska below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 53 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Karel Baros at 56.7%
53 points played in total.
H2H Karel Baros 14–6 Vladislav Reska Vladislav Reska has won 6 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:31What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Baros
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-6 in 20
Baros
Correct
gap of 8 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baros 1500 vs Reska 1531
Reska
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baros 60% vs Reska 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baros 50% vs Reska 80%
Reska
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baros -1 · Reska -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Baros) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reska form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaros 1.61 / Reska 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Baros)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13076886
Baros1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite61% won 60 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it81% 42 of 52
Reska2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog48% won 68 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back22% 14 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaros7wins
AwayReska3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBaros leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaros83.3%5 of 6
AwayReska50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baros6Reska4n = 10Baros took 6 of 10
S2Baros5Reska5n = 10split evenly
S3Baros5Reska5n = 10split evenly
S4Baros5Reska2n = 7Baros took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBarosReskaB − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.333.9+3.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBarosReskaBasisWin rate · lifetime141 / 258 vs 239 / 47354.7%50.5%141 / 258 vs 239 / 473Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BarosBaros 1.61/Reska 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Baros · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Baros won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 16:40K. Baros—1179101V. Reska—71111123
WAug 28 · 14:15K. Baros—11611113V. Reska—411961
WAug 20 · 15:45K. Baros—101111113V. Reska—124991
LAug 14 · 16:10K. Baros—7760V. Reska—1111113
WJul 31 · 17:09K. Baros—81111153V. Reska—1134131
WJul 31 · 15:45K. Baros—111110113V. Reska—591231
LJul 19 · 17:10K. Baros—6690V. Reska—1111113
WJul 19 · 16:15K. Baros—1311113V. Reska—11480
WJun 30 · 17:25K. Baros—16711113V. Reska—1411791
WJun 30 · 15:15K. Baros—111166113V. Reska—87111172
K. Baros10
WSep 4 · 17:05J. Volny1.8341151192K. Baros1.83119117113LSep 4 · 14:40A. Kanak1.53771111113K. Baros2.3811118892WSep 4 · 14:10J. Volny1.911181241K. Baros1.8081114113WSep 2 · 17:15L. Dzida1.83511691K. Baros1.8311811113LSep 2 · 16:15L. Dzida2.0031111113K. Baros1.73115671WSep 2 · 15:15K. Baros2.101111113T. Molin1.678770WSep 2 · 13:45J. Przybyla2.0061191172K. Baros1.73118117113LAug 28 · 16:40K. Baros1.431179101V. Reska2.6071111123LAug 28 · 15:45T. Lysek2.0091111113K. Baros1.73117791LAug 28 · 15:15O. Kus2.501551112113K. Baros1.50171181092
V. Reska10
WSep 5 · 12:40V. Reska1.5313127113T. Ogrocki2.3811101121LSep 5 · 11:40V. Reska1.61871181O. Skvor2.2011116113WSep 5 · 10:40V. Reska1.83111178113J. Patrik1.8379111162WSep 5 · 10:40V. Reska1.85111178113P. Jokiel1.8579111162WSep 5 · 09:40V. Reska1.531111113T. Ogrocki2.388690LSep 4 · 16:35A. Kanak1.801211113V. Reska1.9110450LSep 4 · 15:10V. Reska2.1011115672J. Volny1.67981111113LSep 4 · 13:40A. Kanak1.679111110113V. Reska2.1011871272WSep 2 · 17:10V. Reska1.671111113O. Coufal2.105780WAug 28 · 16:40K. Baros1.431179101V. Reska2.6071111123
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