TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13062945
Played Sep 2Finished
Jan Przybyla
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611118911117711
Karel Baros
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:18 and never touched — 55.0% is still 55.0%
Graded at full timeKarel Baros to win
55.0%
55.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Przybyla above · Karel Baros below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 92 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Karel Baros at 55.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Jan Przybyla 8–14 Karel Baros Jan Przybyla has won 8 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:18What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Baros
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-14 in 22
Baros
Correct
gap of 6 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Przybyla 1554 vs Baros 1457
Przybyla
Wrong
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Przybyla 40% vs Baros 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Przybyla 50% vs Baros 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Przybyla -3 · Baros -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Przybyla) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baros form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrzybyla 2.00 / Baros 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Przybyla)+7.7pp
TT Cup · #13062945
Przybyla2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog54% won 57 of 105
Down 0–1, comes back31% 16 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Baros1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 59 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it82% 41 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePrzybyla4wins
AwayBaros6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBaros leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrzybyla100%3 of 3
AwayBaros85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Przybyla3Baros7n = 10Baros took 7 of 10
S2Przybyla5Baros5n = 10split evenly
S3Przybyla4Baros6n = 10Baros took 6 of 10
S4Przybyla4Baros4n = 8split evenly
S5Przybyla2Baros2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPrzybylaBarosP − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.041.0−4.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrzybylaBarosBasisWin rate · lifetime216 / 407 vs 137 / 25253.1%54.4%216 / 407 vs 137 / 252Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PrzybylaPrzybyla 2.00/Baros 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Przybyla · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Baros won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 2 · 14:15J. Przybyla—9860K. Baros—1111113
LJun 11 · 15:15J. Przybyla—611121112K. Baros—1181011133
WJun 3 · 14:15J. Przybyla—11116113K. Baros—961141
LMay 19 · 21:05J. Przybyla—5850K. Baros—1111113
WMay 19 · 19:40J. Przybyla—11811123K. Baros—8118101
WMay 13 · 21:08J. Przybyla—8111111113K. Baros—11761372
LMay 13 · 19:40J. Przybyla—81161382K. Baros—1171111113
LMay 3 · 17:20J. Przybyla—811741K. Baros—11711113
WMay 3 · 14:40J. Przybyla—129911113K. Baros—101111972
LApr 19 · 16:50J. Przybyla—571141K. Baros—11118113
J. Przybyla10
LSep 7 · 07:10J. Przybyla1.801713119112D. Pawlik1.911911811133LSep 7 · 05:40B. Mrowetz1.361111113J. Przybyla3.007580LSep 5 · 08:44J. Przybyla1.7363111182D. Pawlik2.00111189113WSep 5 · 08:15D. Pawlik1.839580J. Przybyla1.831111113LSep 5 · 07:15J. Przybyla2.25811821B. Mrowetz1.5711511113LSep 5 · 05:45M. Macurak1.5712119113J. Przybyla2.251091181WSep 4 · 12:40D. Jr1.4499100J. Przybyla2.631111123LSep 4 · 12:10D. Jr1.801311113J. Przybyla1.9111980LSep 4 · 11:10J. Przybyla2.20611981J. Krupnik1.6111711113LSep 4 · 09:40R. Sedlacek1.44911911113J. Przybyla2.6311911972
K. Baros10
WSep 4 · 17:05J. Volny1.8341151192K. Baros1.83119117113WSep 4 · 16:10K. Baros1.611111113V. Reska2.205780LSep 4 · 14:40A. Kanak1.53771111113K. Baros2.3811118892WSep 4 · 14:10J. Volny1.911181241K. Baros1.8081114113WSep 2 · 17:15L. Dzida1.83511691K. Baros1.8311811113LSep 2 · 16:15L. Dzida2.0031111113K. Baros1.73115671WSep 2 · 15:15K. Baros2.101111113T. Molin1.678770LAug 28 · 16:40K. Baros1.431179101V. Reska2.6071111123LAug 28 · 15:45T. Lysek2.0091111113K. Baros1.73117791LAug 28 · 15:15O. Kus2.501551112113K. Baros1.50171181092
Upcoming Matches
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