TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13065986
Played Sep 2Finished
Lukas Dzida
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511118611911––
Karel Baros
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:39 and never touched — 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeLukas Dzida to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Dzida above · Karel Baros below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 72 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Lukas Dzida at 62.4%
72 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Dzida 2–2 Karel Baros Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:39What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Baros
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dzida 1564 vs Baros 1469
Dzida
Wrong
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dzida 100% vs Baros 40%
Dzida
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dzida 60% vs Baros 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dzida +5 · Baros -1
Dzida
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dzida) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baros form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDzida 1.83 / Baros 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dzida)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13065986
Dzida1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Baros1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeDzida2wins
AwayBaros2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dzida2Baros2n = 4split evenly
S2Dzida3Baros1n = 4Dzida took 3 of 4
S3Dzida2Baros2n = 4split evenly
S4Dzida2Baros2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricDzidaBarosD − BBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match38.237.8+0.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDzidaBarosBasisWin rate · lifetime96 / 176 vs 139 / 25554.6%54.5%96 / 176 vs 139 / 255Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DzidaDzida 1.83/Baros 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Dzida · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Baros won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 2 · 16:15L. Dzida—31111113K. Baros—115671
LAug 14 · 14:40L. Dzida—11116392K. Baros—781111113
WJul 31 · 14:15L. Dzida—91111113K. Baros—119561
LJul 28 · 15:45L. Dzida—127971K. Baros—101111113
L. Dzida10
WSep 6 · 16:44L. Dzida1.6711811123L. Lasota2.104119101LSep 6 · 15:40T. Kindl1.918111111113L. Dzida1.8011913882WSep 6 · 15:10L. Lasota1.91911991L. Dzida1.8011711113WSep 6 · 14:10L. Dzida1.73411911133T. Molin2.00118118112LSep 4 · 09:20T. Kindl2.001111911113L. Dzida1.7313611592WSep 4 · 08:15T. Kindl1.91812791L. Dzida1.80111011113WSep 4 · 07:15L. Dzida1.61101111113L. Lasota2.20128841LSep 4 · 05:45A. Cizek2.1011611113L. Dzida1.67811851LSep 3 · 08:40T. Kindl—11911113L. Dzida—911991LSep 3 · 08:10T. Kindl2.0011116113L. Dzida1.73681191
K. Baros10
WSep 4 · 17:05J. Volny1.8341151192K. Baros1.83119117113WSep 4 · 16:10K. Baros1.611111113V. Reska2.205780LSep 4 · 14:40A. Kanak1.53771111113K. Baros2.3811118892WSep 4 · 14:10J. Volny1.911181241K. Baros1.8081114113LSep 2 · 16:15L. Dzida2.0031111113K. Baros1.73115671WSep 2 · 15:15K. Baros2.101111113T. Molin1.678770WSep 2 · 13:45J. Przybyla2.0061191172K. Baros1.73118117113LAug 28 · 16:40K. Baros1.431179101V. Reska2.6071111123LAug 28 · 15:45T. Lysek2.0091111113K. Baros1.73117791LAug 28 · 15:15O. Kus2.501551112113K. Baros1.50171181092
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