TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13073760
Played Sep 4Finished
Tomas Kindl
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111210711911––
Lukas Dzida
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:19 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Dzida to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Kindl above · Lukas Dzida below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 79 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Lukas Dzida at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kindl 3–2 Lukas Dzida Lukas Dzida has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:19What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dzida
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kindl 1573 vs Dzida 1513
Kindl
Wrong
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kindl 80% vs Dzida 40%
Kindl
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kindl 70% vs Dzida 50%
Kindl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kindl +4 · Dzida +1
Kindl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dzida)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dzida form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKindl 1.91 / Dzida 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dzida)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13073760
Kindl1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 51 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back25% 15 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Dzida1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
0%takes the first set · 0 of 10
As favourite48% won 36 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it64% 23 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKindl3wins
AwayDzida2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderKindl leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKindl75%3 of 4
AwayDzidan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kindl4Dzida1n = 5Kindl took 4 of 5
S2Kindl1Dzida4n = 5Dzida took 4 of 5
S3Kindl2Dzida3n = 5Dzida took 3 of 5
S4Kindl3Dzida1n = 4Kindl took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricKindlDzidaK − DBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match38.039.0−1.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKindlDzidaBasisWin rate · lifetime197 / 392 vs 98 / 18350.3%53.6%197 / 392 vs 98 / 183Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match41.537.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DzidaKindl 1.91/Dzida 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dzida · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dzida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 3 · 08:40T. Kindl—11911113L. Dzida—911991
WSep 3 · 08:10T. Kindl—11116113L. Dzida—681191
LAug 21 · 05:45T. Kindl—115116102L. Dzida—911411123
LAug 17 · 12:38T. Kindl—5580L. Dzida—1111113
WAug 17 · 09:40T. Kindl—114814113L. Dzida—411111252
T. Kindl10
WSep 6 · 17:15T. Molin1.917128101T. Kindl1.80111011123WSep 6 · 15:40T. Kindl1.918111111113L. Dzida1.8011913882LSep 6 · 14:40T. Kindl1.91813111192T. Molin1.801111913113WSep 6 · 13:40T. Kindl1.671111113L. Lasota2.107850WSep 4 · 09:20T. Kindl2.001111911113L. Dzida1.7313611592WSep 4 · 06:45A. Cizek2.001112491T. Kindl1.7381411113WSep 4 · 06:15L. Lasota2.101011781T. Kindl1.6712711113WSep 3 · 08:40T. Kindl—11911113L. Dzida—911991WSep 3 · 08:10T. Kindl2.0011116113L. Dzida1.73681191LSep 3 · 06:40D. Pawlik1.801111123T. Kindl1.9154100
L. Dzida10
WSep 6 · 16:44L. Dzida1.6711811123L. Lasota2.104119101LSep 6 · 15:40T. Kindl1.918111111113L. Dzida1.8011913882WSep 6 · 15:10L. Lasota1.91911991L. Dzida1.8011711113WSep 6 · 14:10L. Dzida1.73411911133T. Molin2.00118118112LSep 4 · 09:20T. Kindl2.001111911113L. Dzida1.7313611592WSep 4 · 07:15L. Dzida1.61101111113L. Lasota2.20128841LSep 4 · 05:45A. Cizek2.1011611113L. Dzida1.67811851LSep 3 · 08:40T. Kindl—11911113L. Dzida—911991LSep 3 · 08:10T. Kindl2.0011116113L. Dzida1.73681191WSep 3 · 07:10L. Dzida1.80811118113L. Kantor1.9111371122
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