TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13076518
Played Sep 4Finished
Tomas Kindl
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1113116911115119
Lukas Dzida
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:48 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeTomas Kindl to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Kindl above · Lukas Dzida below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 97 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Tomas Kindl at 55.4%
97 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kindl 3–3 Lukas Dzida Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:48What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dzida
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kindl 1560 vs Dzida 1527
Kindl
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kindl 80% vs Dzida 40%
Kindl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kindl 70% vs Dzida 50%
Kindl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kindl +4 · Dzida +1
Kindl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dzida) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dzida form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKindl 2.00 / Dzida 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dzida)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13076518
Kindl2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 51 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back25% 15 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Dzida1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite48% won 36 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it64% 23 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKindl3wins
AwayDzida3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKindl75%3 of 4
AwayDzidan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kindl4Dzida2n = 6Kindl took 4 of 6
S2Kindl2Dzida4n = 6Dzida took 4 of 6
S3Kindl2Dzida4n = 6Dzida took 4 of 6
S4Kindl3Dzida2n = 5Kindl took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricKindlDzidaK − DBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match37.739.7−2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKindlDzidaBasisWin rate · lifetime197 / 393 vs 99 / 18450.1%53.8%197 / 393 vs 99 / 184Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match41.537.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DzidaKindl 2.00/Dzida 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Dzida · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kindl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 4 · 08:15T. Kindl—812791L. Dzida—111011113
WSep 3 · 08:40T. Kindl—11911113L. Dzida—911991
WSep 3 · 08:10T. Kindl—11116113L. Dzida—681191
LAug 21 · 05:45T. Kindl—115116102L. Dzida—911411123
LAug 17 · 12:38T. Kindl—5580L. Dzida—1111113
WAug 17 · 09:40T. Kindl—114814113L. Dzida—411111252
T. Kindl10
WSep 6 · 17:15T. Molin1.917128101T. Kindl1.80111011123WSep 6 · 15:40T. Kindl1.918111111113L. Dzida1.8011913882LSep 6 · 14:40T. Kindl1.91813111192T. Molin1.801111913113WSep 6 · 13:40T. Kindl1.671111113L. Lasota2.107850LSep 4 · 08:15T. Kindl1.91812791L. Dzida1.80111011113WSep 4 · 06:45A. Cizek2.001112491T. Kindl1.7381411113WSep 4 · 06:15L. Lasota2.101011781T. Kindl1.6712711113WSep 3 · 08:40T. Kindl—11911113L. Dzida—911991WSep 3 · 08:10T. Kindl2.0011116113L. Dzida1.73681191LSep 3 · 06:40D. Pawlik1.801111123T. Kindl1.9154100
L. Dzida10
WSep 6 · 16:44L. Dzida1.6711811123L. Lasota2.104119101LSep 6 · 15:40T. Kindl1.918111111113L. Dzida1.8011913882WSep 6 · 15:10L. Lasota1.91911991L. Dzida1.8011711113WSep 6 · 14:10L. Dzida1.73411911133T. Molin2.00118118112WSep 4 · 08:15T. Kindl1.91812791L. Dzida1.80111011113WSep 4 · 07:15L. Dzida1.61101111113L. Lasota2.20128841LSep 4 · 05:45A. Cizek2.1011611113L. Dzida1.67811851LSep 3 · 08:40T. Kindl—11911113L. Dzida—911991LSep 3 · 08:10T. Kindl2.0011116113L. Dzida1.73681191WSep 3 · 07:10L. Dzida1.80811118113L. Kantor1.9111371122
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