TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13074009
Played Sep 4Finished
Lukas Dzida
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1012118118114––
Laurent Lasota
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:01 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Dzida to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Dzida above · Laurent Lasota below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 75 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Lukas Dzida at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Dzida 4–5 Laurent Lasota Lukas Dzida has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:01What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Dzida
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dzida 1529 vs Lasota 1516
Dzida
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dzida 20% vs Lasota 80%
Lasota
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dzida 50% vs Lasota 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dzida -3 · Lasota -1
Dzida
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Dzida) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lasota form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDzida 1.61 / Lasota 2.20
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Dzida)-0.4pp
TT Cup · #13074009
Dzida1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite48% won 38 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it63% 24 of 38
Lasota2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog52% won 46 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back31% 15 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeDzida4wins
AwayLasota5wins
3 of 9 to a deciderLasota leads 5–4, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDzida60%3 of 5
AwayLasota75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dzida5Lasota4n = 9Dzida took 5 of 9
S2Dzida5Lasota4n = 9Dzida took 5 of 9
S3Dzida4Lasota5n = 9Lasota took 5 of 9
S4Dzida5Lasota3n = 8Dzida took 5 of 8
S5Dzida0Lasota3n = 3Lasota took 3 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home444%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricDzidaLasotaD − LBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match40.439.2+1.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDzidaLasotaBasisWin rate · lifetime99 / 185 vs 135 / 27053.5%50%99 / 185 vs 135 / 270Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DzidaDzida 1.61/Lasota 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.3%
Dzida · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dzida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 4 · 07:15L. Dzida—101111113L. Lasota—128841
WJul 29 · 12:10L. Dzida—14611113L. Lasota—1211391
WJul 21 · 15:45L. Dzida—11119113L. Lasota—761141
LJul 18 · 17:20L. Dzida—11148462L. Lasota—5121111113
LJul 18 · 16:15L. Dzida—5111181L. Lasota—11137113
WJul 5 · 09:45L. Dzida—11711113L. Lasota—511791
LJun 13 · 13:15L. Dzida—1111812102L. Lasota—641114123
LJun 13 · 09:45L. Dzida—81141482L. Lasota—1191112113
LJun 12 · 11:10L. Dzida—4990L. Lasota—1111113
L. Dzida10
WSep 6 · 16:44L. Dzida1.6711811123L. Lasota2.104119101LSep 6 · 15:40T. Kindl1.918111111113L. Dzida1.8011913882WSep 6 · 15:10L. Lasota1.91911991L. Dzida1.8011711113WSep 6 · 14:10L. Dzida1.73411911133T. Molin2.00118118112LSep 4 · 09:20T. Kindl2.001111911113L. Dzida1.7313611592WSep 4 · 08:15T. Kindl1.91812791L. Dzida1.80111011113LSep 4 · 05:45A. Cizek2.1011611113L. Dzida1.67811851LSep 3 · 08:40T. Kindl—11911113L. Dzida—911991LSep 3 · 08:10T. Kindl2.0011116113L. Dzida1.73681191WSep 3 · 07:10L. Dzida1.80811118113L. Kantor1.9111371122
L. Lasota10
LSep 7 · 06:40B. Mrowetz1.61661111113L. Lasota2.2011114562WSep 7 · 06:10D. Pawlik1.731411391L. Lasota2.0016811113LSep 6 · 16:44L. Dzida1.6711811123L. Lasota2.104119101LSep 6 · 16:10T. Molin1.83111149113L. Lasota1.8357111172LSep 6 · 15:10L. Lasota1.91911991L. Dzida1.8011711113LSep 6 · 13:40T. Kindl1.671111113L. Lasota2.107850WSep 4 · 08:48A. Cizek1.5381341242L. Lasota2.3811111110113LSep 4 · 07:45A. Cizek1.80911711113L. Lasota1.9111611472LSep 4 · 06:15L. Lasota2.101011781T. Kindl1.6712711113WAug 28 · 13:05L. Lasota1.80911511123L. Kantor1.91115114102
Upcoming Matches
L. Dzida
Nothing scheduled
L. Lasota
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