TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13089582
Played Sep 7Finished
Dominik Pawlik
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1416118311911––
Laurent Lasota
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDominik Pawlik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDominik Pawlik above · Laurent Lasota below
Set 1 · 14-16
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 83 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Dominik Pawlik at 54.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Pawlik 3–2 Laurent Lasota Laurent Lasota has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:42What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pawlik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1497 vs Lasota 1481
Pawlik
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 20% vs Lasota 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 30% vs Lasota 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik -4 · Lasota -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pawlik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lasota form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 1.73 / Lasota 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pawlik)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13089582
Pawlik1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 68 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it89% 39 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it77% 53 of 69
Lasota2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 46 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back29% 15 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomePawlik3wins
AwayLasota2wins
3 of 5 to a deciderPawlik leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlik75%3 of 4
AwayLasotan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik4Lasota1n = 5Pawlik took 4 of 5
S2Pawlik4Lasota1n = 5Pawlik took 4 of 5
S3Pawlik1Lasota4n = 5Lasota took 4 of 5
S4Pawlik1Lasota3n = 4Lasota took 3 of 4
S5Pawlik2Lasota1n = 3Pawlik took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricPawlikLasotaP − LBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match45.442.0+3.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikLasotaBasisWin rate · lifetime222 / 448 vs 136 / 27649.6%49.3%222 / 448 vs 136 / 276Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikPawlik 1.73/Lasota 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lasota won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 7 · 06:10D. Pawlik—1411391L. Lasota—16811113
LJun 21 · 11:45D. Pawlik—13991182L. Lasota—1111119113
WMar 21 · 09:55D. Pawlik—111177113L. Lasota—39111162
WMar 21 · 06:45D. Pawlik—1113169113L. Lasota—611181162
WMar 14 · 08:40D. Pawlik—1111113L. Lasota—6490
D. Pawlik10
LSep 6 · 08:50L. Slavik1.611613113D. Pawlik2.20141110LSep 6 · 08:15D. Pawlik2.001251431D. Jr1.73141112113LSep 6 · 06:45T. Krenek1.73119119133D. Pawlik2.00611911112LSep 6 · 06:15L. Slavik1.61111195113D. Pawlik2.2088111182WSep 5 · 08:44J. Przybyla1.7363111182D. Pawlik2.00111189113LSep 5 · 08:15D. Pawlik1.839580J. Przybyla1.831111113LSep 5 · 06:45M. Macurak1.53511119113D. Pawlik2.3811821112WSep 5 · 06:15B. Mrowetz1.4411116982D. Pawlik2.63831111113LSep 3 · 13:15B. Mrowetz1.441112113D. Pawlik2.6351060WSep 3 · 12:10D. Pawlik1.5711117113L. Kantor2.25861191
L. Lasota10
LSep 7 · 06:40B. Mrowetz1.61661111113L. Lasota2.2011114562LSep 6 · 16:44L. Dzida1.6711811123L. Lasota2.104119101LSep 6 · 16:10T. Molin1.83111149113L. Lasota1.8357111172LSep 6 · 15:10L. Lasota1.91911991L. Dzida1.8011711113LSep 6 · 13:40T. Kindl1.671111113L. Lasota2.107850WSep 4 · 08:48A. Cizek1.5381341242L. Lasota2.3811111110113LSep 4 · 07:45A. Cizek1.80911711113L. Lasota1.9111611472LSep 4 · 07:15L. Dzida1.61101111113L. Lasota2.20128841LSep 4 · 06:15L. Lasota2.101011781T. Kindl1.6712711113WAug 28 · 13:05L. Lasota1.80911511123L. Kantor1.91115114102
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