TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13084609
Played Sep 6Finished
Dominik Pawlik
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12145111412311––
Dalibor Velky Jr
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDalibor Velky Jr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Pawlik above · Dalibor Velky Jr below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 82 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Dalibor Velky Jr at 54.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Pawlik 9–7 Dalibor Velky Jr Dalibor Velky Jr has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:08What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-7 in 16
Pawlik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1537 vs Jr 1616
Jr
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 20% vs Jr 40%
Jr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 40% vs Jr 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik -2 · Jr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Jr) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 2.00 / Jr 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Jr)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13084609
Pawlik2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 58 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back23% 14 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Jr1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite47% won 85 of 182
Up 2–0, closes it87% 39 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it67% 62 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePawlik5wins
AwayJr5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlik60%3 of 5
AwayJr60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik5Jr5n = 10split evenly
S2Pawlik5Jr5n = 10split evenly
S3Pawlik4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S4Pawlik3Jr5n = 8Jr took 5 of 8
S5Pawlik3Jr1n = 4Pawlik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPawlikJrP − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.839.6+1.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikJrBasisWin rate · lifetime222 / 445 vs 255 / 50549.9%50.5%222 / 445 vs 255 / 505Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrPawlik 2.00/Jr 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 08:15D. Pawlik—11611113D. Jr—611851
WAug 29 · 08:50D. Pawlik—1111103113D. Jr—94121162
LAug 29 · 07:15D. Pawlik—1178141D. Jr—81111163
WAug 28 · 07:45D. Pawlik—1111133D. Jr—79110
LAug 21 · 10:15D. Pawlik—10680D. Jr—1211113
LAug 21 · 06:15D. Pawlik—1591181D. Jr—17115113
LAug 14 · 07:10D. Pawlik—11116992D. Jr—961111113
WAug 3 · 07:10D. Pawlik—611812113D. Jr—115111012
WJul 27 · 07:40D. Pawlik—10101111113D. Jr—12126692
LJul 23 · 05:45D. Pawlik—511991D. Jr—11911113
D. Pawlik10
LSep 7 · 06:10D. Pawlik1.731411391L. Lasota2.0016811113LSep 6 · 08:50L. Slavik1.611613113D. Pawlik2.20141110LSep 6 · 06:45T. Krenek1.73119119133D. Pawlik2.00611911112LSep 6 · 06:15L. Slavik1.61111195113D. Pawlik2.2088111182WSep 5 · 08:44J. Przybyla1.7363111182D. Pawlik2.00111189113LSep 5 · 08:15D. Pawlik1.839580J. Przybyla1.831111113LSep 5 · 06:45M. Macurak1.53511119113D. Pawlik2.3811821112WSep 5 · 06:15B. Mrowetz1.4411116982D. Pawlik2.63831111113LSep 3 · 13:15B. Mrowetz1.441112113D. Pawlik2.6351060WSep 3 · 12:10D. Pawlik1.5711117113L. Kantor2.25861191
D. Jr10
LSep 6 · 09:20D. Jr1.987590T. Krenek1.731111113WSep 6 · 07:15D. Jr2.101111113L. Slavik1.678390LSep 6 · 05:45T. Krenek1.731111811123D. Jr2.00951113102LSep 4 · 12:40D. Jr1.4499100J. Przybyla2.631111123WSep 4 · 12:10D. Jr1.801311113J. Przybyla1.9111980LSep 4 · 10:40R. Sedlacek1.801111113D. Jr1.918890LSep 4 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.5711116113D. Jr2.25851181WSep 4 · 08:40J. Skvrna1.5776100D. Jr2.251111123LSep 4 · 08:10M. Macurak1.8051111113D. Jr1.91116471LSep 4 · 07:10D. Jr2.2013311101J. Krupnik1.6115118123
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