TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13095365
Played Sep 8Finished
Jan Skvrna
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1164111191113116
Dalibor Velky Jr
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:45 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Skvrna above · Dalibor Velky Jr below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 93 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Jan Skvrna at 59.7%
93 points played in total.
H2H Jan Skvrna 17–8 Dalibor Velky Jr Dalibor Velky Jr has won 8 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:45What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Skvrna
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-8 in 25
Skvrna
Correct
gap of 9 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvrna 1633 vs Jr 1567
Skvrna
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvrna 20% vs Jr 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvrna 40% vs Jr 20%
Skvrna
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvrna -4 · Jr -2
Skvrna
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Skvrna) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvrna 1.57 / Jr 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Skvrna)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #13095365
Skvrna1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 226 of 385
Up 2–0, closes it96% 76 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it74% 159 of 215
Jr2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog52% won 121 of 235
Down 0–1, comes back30% 35 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back12% 6 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkvrna6wins
AwayJr4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSkvrna leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvrna80%4 of 5
AwayJr60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvrna5Jr5n = 10split evenly
S2Skvrna3Jr7n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S3Skvrna6Jr4n = 10Skvrna took 6 of 10
S4Skvrna4Jr4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkvrnaJrS − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.839.0+0.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvrnaJrBasisWin rate · lifetime454 / 786 vs 258 / 51657.8%50%454 / 786 vs 258 / 516Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaSkvrna 1.57/Jr 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skvrna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 08:40J. Skvrna—76100D. Jr—1111123
WSep 4 · 05:40J. Skvrna—71211113D. Jr—1110741
WAug 11 · 09:10J. Skvrna—11811113D. Jr—711691
LAug 11 · 06:40J. Skvrna—1168111D. Jr—61111133
WAug 7 · 10:40J. Skvrna—20811113D. Jr—1811651
WAug 6 · 09:40J. Skvrna—711169113D. Jr—119141172
WAug 3 · 13:10J. Skvrna—111113133D. Jr—51311111
LAug 3 · 10:40J. Skvrna—5117121D. Jr—11511143
WJul 22 · 09:08J. Skvrna—115117113D. Jr—71181172
LJul 22 · 07:40J. Skvrna—8980D. Jr—1111113
J. Skvrna10
LSep 8 · 09:40J. Skvrna1.61812101172T. Kindl2.201110122113LSep 6 · 12:40J. Skvrna1.5711914472E. Precek2.258111211113LSep 6 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.7378100T. Krenek2.001111123LSep 6 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.5731191182L. Slavik2.25114119113WSep 6 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.53131112113E. Precek2.381551071WSep 5 · 13:10M. Macurak1.90891191J. Skvrna1.7411118113WSep 5 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.67111177113J. Krupnik2.1069111152LSep 5 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.6171180M. Macurak2.201113113WSep 5 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.53115129113E. Precek2.38911101192LSep 4 · 17:10D. Skulina1.3611611113J. Skvrna3.00511681
D. Jr10
LSep 8 · 10:10T. Krenek1.611211113D. Jr2.2010890LSep 8 · 08:38D. Jr1.91815120T. Krenek1.801117143WSep 8 · 08:10T. Krenek1.61316671D. Jr2.20111411113LSep 8 · 07:10D. Jr2.63714991J. Gembala1.44111211113LSep 8 · 05:40M. Macurak1.5091111113D. Jr2.50116861WSep 7 · 12:40R. Benes1.8087100D. Jr1.911111123LSep 7 · 12:10R. Benes1.9111611113D. Jr1.80711681LSep 7 · 11:10D. Jr1.7310830B. Mrowetz2.001211113LSep 7 · 09:40T. Kindl2.1012713113D. Jr1.6710111191LSep 6 · 09:20D. Jr1.987590T. Krenek1.731111113
Upcoming Matches
J. Skvrna
Nothing scheduled
D. Jr
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