TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13095356
Played Sep 8Finished
Dalibor Velky Jr
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111412911911––
Jan Gembala
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:48 and never touched — 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeJan Gembala to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDalibor Velky Jr above · Jan Gembala below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 84 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jan Gembala at 67.3%
84 points played in total.
H2H Dalibor Velky Jr 2–2 Jan Gembala Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:48What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Gembala
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1574 vs Gembala 1723
Gembala
Correct
both rated, 148 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 20% vs Gembala 100%
Gembala
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 30% vs Gembala 80%
Gembala
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -1 · Gembala +5
Gembala
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Gembala)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gembala form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.63 / Gembala 1.44
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Gembala)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13095356
Jr2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog52% won 121 of 235
Down 0–1, comes back30% 35 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back12% 6 of 52
Gembala1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite56% won 86 of 154
Up 2–0, closes it98% 51 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it78% 67 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeJr2wins
AwayGembala2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr2Gembala2n = 4split evenly
S2Jr1Gembala3n = 4Gembala took 3 of 4
S3Jr2Gembala2n = 4split evenly
S4Jr1Gembala2n = 3Gembala took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricJrGembalaJ − GBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match37.239.5−2.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrGembalaBasisWin rate · lifetime258 / 514 vs 202 / 36950.2%54.7%258 / 514 vs 202 / 369Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GembalaJr 2.63/Gembala 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Gembala · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Gembala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 8 · 07:10D. Jr—714991J. Gembala—111211113
LAug 5 · 09:14D. Jr—12820J. Gembala—1411113
WAug 5 · 05:40D. Jr—11611113J. Gembala—411591
WMay 1 · 05:45D. Jr—1121510113J. Gembala—411131282
D. Jr10
LSep 8 · 08:38D. Jr1.91815120T. Krenek1.801117143WSep 8 · 08:10T. Krenek1.61316671D. Jr2.20111411113LSep 8 · 05:40M. Macurak1.5091111113D. Jr2.50116861WSep 7 · 12:40R. Benes1.8087100D. Jr1.911111123LSep 7 · 12:10R. Benes1.9111611113D. Jr1.80711681LSep 7 · 11:10D. Jr1.7310830B. Mrowetz2.001211113LSep 7 · 09:40T. Kindl2.1012713113D. Jr1.6710111191LSep 6 · 09:20D. Jr1.987590T. Krenek1.731111113WSep 6 · 08:15D. Pawlik2.001251431D. Jr1.73141112113WSep 6 · 07:15D. Jr2.101111113L. Slavik1.678390
J. Gembala10
WSep 8 · 07:40M. Macurak2.10571191J. Gembala1.6711118113WSep 8 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831211113T. Krenek1.8310670WSep 6 · 09:25J. Gembala1.611111113D. Stusek2.206970WSep 6 · 07:40B. Moravec1.80611761J. Gembala1.9111211113WSep 6 · 07:10D. Stusek2.381210961J. Gembala1.53101211113WSep 6 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831111113F. Chaloupka1.831880WSep 1 · 17:09J. Gembala1.9112118113F. Chaloupka1.801091171WSep 1 · 15:40M. Zaskodny1.44109111162J. Gembala2.63121189113WSep 1 · 15:10D. Skulina2.254860J. Gembala1.571111113LSep 1 · 14:10J. Gembala1.831121171F. Chaloupka1.8371113113
Upcoming Matches
D. Jr
J. Gembala
Nothing scheduled
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