TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13057738
Played Sep 1Finished
Jan Gembala
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1172111113711––
Frantisek Chaloupka
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:13 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Chaloupka to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Gembala above · Frantisek Chaloupka below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 73 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Frantisek Chaloupka at 55.1%
73 points played in total.
H2H Jan Gembala 10–9 Frantisek Chaloupka Frantisek Chaloupka has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:13What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Chaloupka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-9 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gembala 1624 vs Chaloupka 1687
Chaloupka
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gembala 0% vs Chaloupka 20%
Chaloupka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gembala 30% vs Chaloupka 60%
Chaloupka
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gembala -5 · Chaloupka +1
Gembala
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chaloupka) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chaloupka form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGembala 1.83 / Chaloupka 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Chaloupka)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13057738
Gembala1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Chaloupka1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGembala4wins
AwayChaloupka6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderChaloupka leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGembala66.7%2 of 3
AwayChaloupka71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gembala3Chaloupka7n = 10Chaloupka took 7 of 10
S2Gembala6Chaloupka4n = 10Gembala took 6 of 10
S3Gembala4Chaloupka6n = 10Chaloupka took 6 of 10
S4Gembala2Chaloupka3n = 5Chaloupka took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricGembalaChaloupkaG − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.936.4−2.5per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGembalaChaloupkaBasisWin rate · lifetime194 / 361 vs 256 / 48853.7%52.5%194 / 361 vs 256 / 488Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChaloupkaGembala 1.83/Chaloupka 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chaloupka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chaloupka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 14:10J. Gembala—1121171F. Chaloupka—71113113
LAug 28 · 19:40J. Gembala—8930F. Chaloupka—1111113
WAug 26 · 15:45J. Gembala—1111113F. Chaloupka—8690
LAug 16 · 10:10J. Gembala—8780F. Chaloupka—1111113
WAug 16 · 06:10J. Gembala—1111113F. Chaloupka—9750
LAug 15 · 12:38J. Gembala—71291282F. Chaloupka—11101110113
WAug 15 · 11:10J. Gembala—412149113F. Chaloupka—1110121182
WAug 13 · 16:40J. Gembala—81111113F. Chaloupka—119451
LAug 13 · 16:10J. Gembala—117110F. Chaloupka—1311133
LAug 12 · 17:20J. Gembala—511781F. Chaloupka—11811113
J. Gembala10
WSep 6 · 09:25J. Gembala1.611111113D. Stusek2.206970WSep 6 · 07:40B. Moravec1.80611761J. Gembala1.9111211113WSep 6 · 07:10D. Stusek2.381210961J. Gembala1.53101211113WSep 6 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831111113F. Chaloupka1.831880WSep 1 · 17:09J. Gembala1.9112118113F. Chaloupka1.801091171WSep 1 · 15:40M. Zaskodny1.44109111162J. Gembala2.63121189113WSep 1 · 15:10D. Skulina2.254860J. Gembala1.571111113LSep 1 · 01:15M. Zaskodny1.671111113J. Gembala2.106950LSep 1 · 24:15J. Gembala2.5051070J. Rak1.501112113LAug 31 · 22:45P. Vicherek1.73118118113J. Gembala2.0041181192
F. Chaloupka10
LSep 6 · 08:53F. Chaloupka3.0081151172B. Moravec1.36117114113LSep 6 · 08:10F. Chaloupka1.911111711112D. Stusek1.80913119133WSep 6 · 06:40B. Moravec1.4436111172F. Chaloupka2.63111159113LSep 6 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831111113F. Chaloupka1.831880LSep 4 · 16:39F. Chaloupka1.615131291K. Kleprlik2.20111114113LSep 4 · 15:45F. Chaloupka2.201111581J. Skvrna1.6113911113LSep 4 · 14:45F. Chaloupka1.73411148102D. Skulina2.001131211123WSep 4 · 13:45F. Chaloupka1.83111169113K. Kleprlik1.8339111172LSep 1 · 17:09J. Gembala1.9112118113F. Chaloupka1.801091171LSep 1 · 16:10F. Chaloupka1.67117581D. Skulina2.1091111113
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