TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13084571
Played Sep 6Finished
Borek Moravec
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
311611115119711
Frantisek Chaloupka
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:58 and never touched — 68.9% is still 68.9%
Graded at full timeBorek Moravec to win
68.9%
68.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingBorek Moravec above · Frantisek Chaloupka below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 85 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Borek Moravec at 68.9%
85 points played in total.
H2H Borek Moravec 35–19 Frantisek Chaloupka Frantisek Chaloupka has won 19 of their 54 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:58What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Moravec
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-19 in 54
Moravec
Wrong
gap of 16 in 54, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1776 vs Chaloupka 1611
Moravec
Wrong
both rated, 165 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 80% vs Chaloupka 20%
Moravec
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 60% vs Chaloupka 40%
Moravec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec -1 · Chaloupka -4
Chaloupka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Moravec) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chaloupka form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.44 / Chaloupka 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Moravec)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13084571
Moravec1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite72% won 113 of 157
Up 2–0, closes it100% 51 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it88% 80 of 91
Chaloupka2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 53 of 116
Down 0–1, comes back31% 19 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoravec9wins
AwayChaloupka1wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMoravec leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec100%6 of 6
AwayChaloupka25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec6Chaloupka4n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S2Moravec4Chaloupka6n = 10Chaloupka took 6 of 10
S3Moravec8Chaloupka2n = 10Moravec took 8 of 10
S4Moravec7Chaloupka1n = 8Moravec took 7 of 8
S5Moravec4Chaloupka1n = 5Moravec took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoravecChaloupkaM − CBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.637.9+4.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecChaloupkaBasisWin rate · lifetime253 / 441 vs 258 / 49757.4%51.9%253 / 441 vs 258 / 497Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.44/Chaloupka 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.1%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chaloupka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 08:53B. Moravec—117114113F. Chaloupka—81151172
LSep 6 · 06:40B. Moravec—36111172F. Chaloupka—111159113
WAug 30 · 07:40B. Moravec—831112113F. Chaloupka—111181032
WAug 21 · 15:40B. Moravec—711811113F. Chaloupka—11711782
WAug 16 · 06:40B. Moravec—111112113F. Chaloupka—961491
WAug 13 · 13:40B. Moravec—111211113F. Chaloupka—814751
WAug 8 · 07:40B. Moravec—11912113F. Chaloupka—8111091
WAug 7 · 17:10B. Moravec—1511113F. Chaloupka—13580
WAug 7 · 15:40B. Moravec—771211113F. Chaloupka—111110762
WAug 5 · 15:45B. Moravec—1111113F. Chaloupka—8680
B. Moravec10
WSep 6 · 08:53F. Chaloupka3.0081151172B. Moravec1.36117114113LSep 6 · 07:40B. Moravec1.80611761J. Gembala1.9111211113LSep 6 · 05:40B. Moravec1.806950D. Stusek1.911111113WAug 30 · 09:19B. Moravec1.44119911113J. Skvrna2.6361111462WAug 30 · 07:40B. Moravec1.44831112113F. Chaloupka2.63111181032WAug 30 · 06:40B. Moravec1.44111111113J. Skvrna2.63139431WAug 30 · 05:40B. Moravec1.50117119113J. Skalicky2.5051121172LAug 25 · 16:55J. Rak—116113113B. Moravec—61141182LAug 25 · 16:15J. Rak1.8311119113B. Moravec1.83691171WAug 25 · 15:15B. Moravec2.20114117113P. Vicherek1.6191151192
F. Chaloupka10
LSep 6 · 08:53F. Chaloupka3.0081151172B. Moravec1.36117114113LSep 6 · 08:10F. Chaloupka1.911111711112D. Stusek1.80913119133LSep 6 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831111113F. Chaloupka1.831880LSep 4 · 16:39F. Chaloupka1.615131291K. Kleprlik2.20111114113LSep 4 · 15:45F. Chaloupka2.201111581J. Skvrna1.6113911113LSep 4 · 14:45F. Chaloupka1.73411148102D. Skulina2.001131211123WSep 4 · 13:45F. Chaloupka1.83111169113K. Kleprlik1.8339111172LSep 1 · 17:09J. Gembala1.9112118113F. Chaloupka1.801091171LSep 1 · 16:10F. Chaloupka1.67117581D. Skulina2.1091111113LAug 30 · 07:40B. Moravec1.44831112113F. Chaloupka2.63111181032
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