TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13044906
Played Aug 30Finished
Borek Moravec
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1113119114113––
Jan Skvrna
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:47 and never touched — 68.1% is still 68.1%
Graded at full timeBorek Moravec to win
68.1%
68.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingBorek Moravec above · Jan Skvrna below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 73 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Borek Moravec at 68.1%
73 points played in total.
H2H Borek Moravec 20–13 Jan Skvrna Jan Skvrna has won 13 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:47What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-13 in 33
Moravec
Correct
gap of 7 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1821 vs Skvrna 1651
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 170 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 40% vs Skvrna 80%
Skvrna
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 70% vs Skvrna 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec +1 · Skvrna +3
Skvrna
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Moravec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvrna form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.44 / Skvrna 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Moravec)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13044906
Moravec1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite72% won 115 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it96% 52 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it86% 81 of 94
Skvrna2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog46% won 26 of 57
Down 0–1, comes back18% 5 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoravec10wins
AwaySkvrna0wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMoravec leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec100%6 of 6
AwaySkvrna0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec6Skvrna4n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S2Moravec8Skvrna2n = 10Moravec took 8 of 10
S3Moravec9Skvrna1n = 10Moravec took 9 of 10
S4Moravec5Skvrna1n = 6Moravec took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoravecSkvrnaM − SBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.829.5+10.3per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecSkvrnaBasisWin rate · lifetime252 / 437 vs 443 / 76557.7%57.9%252 / 437 vs 443 / 765Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.340.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.44/Skvrna 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.1%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 09:19B. Moravec—119911113J. Skvrna—61111462
WAug 30 · 06:40B. Moravec—111111113J. Skvrna—139431
WAug 13 · 17:10B. Moravec—1111113J. Skvrna—4880
WAug 13 · 15:40B. Moravec—1111113J. Skvrna—4890
WAug 12 · 09:08B. Moravec—71111113J. Skvrna—114971
WAug 12 · 07:40B. Moravec—1111113J. Skvrna—3750
WAug 5 · 14:15B. Moravec—111111133J. Skvrna—1378111
WJul 27 · 13:45B. Moravec—115114133J. Skvrna—511911112
WJul 18 · 09:10B. Moravec—81111113J. Skvrna—118581
WJul 18 · 08:10B. Moravec—1111113J. Skvrna—7970
B. Moravec10
WSep 6 · 08:53F. Chaloupka3.0081151172B. Moravec1.36117114113LSep 6 · 07:40B. Moravec1.80611761J. Gembala1.9111211113LSep 6 · 06:40B. Moravec1.4436111172F. Chaloupka2.63111159113LSep 6 · 05:40B. Moravec1.806950D. Stusek1.911111113WAug 30 · 09:19B. Moravec1.44119911113J. Skvrna2.6361111462WAug 30 · 07:40B. Moravec1.44831112113F. Chaloupka2.63111181032WAug 30 · 05:40B. Moravec1.50117119113J. Skalicky2.5051121172LAug 25 · 16:55J. Rak—116113113B. Moravec—61141182LAug 25 · 16:15J. Rak1.8311119113B. Moravec1.83691171WAug 25 · 15:15B. Moravec2.20114117113P. Vicherek1.6191151192
J. Skvrna10
LSep 6 · 12:40J. Skvrna1.5711914472E. Precek2.258111211113LSep 6 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.7378100T. Krenek2.001111123LSep 6 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.5731191182L. Slavik2.25114119113WSep 6 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.53131112113E. Precek2.381551071WSep 5 · 13:10M. Macurak1.90891191J. Skvrna1.7411118113WSep 5 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.67111177113J. Krupnik2.1069111152LSep 5 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.6171180M. Macurak2.201113113WSep 5 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.53115129113E. Precek2.38911101192LSep 4 · 17:10D. Skulina1.3611611113J. Skvrna3.00511681LAug 30 · 09:19B. Moravec1.44119911113J. Skvrna2.6361111462
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