TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13012905
Played Aug 25Finished
Jonas Rak
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116119911117––
Borek Moravec
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:27 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeBorek Moravec to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingJonas Rak above · Borek Moravec below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 75 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Borek Moravec at 57.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Jonas Rak 1–1 Borek Moravec Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:27What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Moravec
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Rak 1653 vs Moravec 1816
Moravec
Wrong
both rated, 163 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 40% vs Moravec 80%
Moravec
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 30% vs Moravec 80%
Moravec
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak -2 · Moravec +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Moravec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 1.83 / Moravec 1.83
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Moravec)+7.0pp
TT Cup · #13012905
Rak1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Moravec1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeRak1wins
AwayMoravec1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricRakMoravecR − MBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match36.040.0−4.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime48 / 98 vs 248 / 43149%57.5%48 / 98 vs 248 / 431Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecRak 1.83/Moravec 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 18 · 16:53J. Rak—131540B. Moravec—1517113
WAug 18 · 15:15J. Rak—11117113B. Moravec—991181
J. Rak10
WSep 6 · 13:10J. Rak2.501711113F. Sikora1.4215480WSep 6 · 12:10J. Rak2.101311113D. Sarganek1.6711860WSep 6 · 10:40F. Sikora1.5012111591J. Rak2.50101317113WSep 6 · 10:10R. Niezgoda1.5312971162J. Rak2.381011119113LSep 3 · 17:20F. Sikora1.3611411113J. Rak3.00611861WSep 3 · 16:10P. Vicherek1.83111091262J. Rak1.835121110113WSep 3 · 15:10J. Rak2.3811116133R. Niezgoda1.539411111LSep 3 · 13:40F. Sikora1.50101111113J. Rak2.50127351WSep 1 · 24:15J. Gembala2.5051070J. Rak1.501112113WAug 31 · 23:15J. Rak1.6111913113M. Zaskodny2.209111181
B. Moravec10
WSep 6 · 08:53F. Chaloupka3.0081151172B. Moravec1.36117114113LSep 6 · 07:40B. Moravec1.80611761J. Gembala1.9111211113LSep 6 · 06:40B. Moravec1.4436111172F. Chaloupka2.63111159113LSep 6 · 05:40B. Moravec1.806950D. Stusek1.911111113WAug 30 · 09:19B. Moravec1.44119911113J. Skvrna2.6361111462WAug 30 · 07:40B. Moravec1.44831112113F. Chaloupka2.63111181032WAug 30 · 06:40B. Moravec1.44111111113J. Skvrna2.63139431WAug 30 · 05:40B. Moravec1.50117119113J. Skalicky2.5051121172LAug 25 · 16:55J. Rak—116113113B. Moravec—61141182WAug 25 · 15:15B. Moravec2.20114117113P. Vicherek1.6191151192
Upcoming Matches
J. Rak
B. Moravec
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