TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13087440
Played Sep 6Finished
Jonas Rak
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1715114118––––
Filip Sikora
Away
1.42
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:58 and never touched — 65.8% is still 65.8%
Graded at full timeFilip Sikora to win
65.8%
65.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJonas Rak above · Filip Sikora below
Set 1 · 17-15
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 66 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Filip Sikora at 65.8%
66 points played in total.
H2H Jonas Rak 9–16 Filip Sikora Jonas Rak has won 9 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:58What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.42 (64%)
Sikora
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-16 in 25
Sikora
Wrong
gap of 7 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1720 vs Sikora 1819
Sikora
Wrong
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 80% vs Sikora 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 70% vs Sikora 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak +3 · Sikora +1
Rak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Sikora) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 2.50 / Sikora 1.42
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Sikora)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13087440
Rak2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 21 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back36% 12 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Sikora1.42
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite60% won 79 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it94% 43 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it75% 58 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRak4wins
AwaySikora6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSikora leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRak50%2 of 4
AwaySikora66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak4Sikora6n = 10Sikora took 6 of 10
S2Rak6Sikora4n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S3Rak5Sikora5n = 10split evenly
S4Rak2Sikora4n = 6Sikora took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRakSikoraR − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.237.2−4.0per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakSikoraBasisWin rate · lifetime58 / 112 vs 172 / 30451.8%56.6%58 / 112 vs 172 / 304Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SikoraRak 2.50/Sikora 1.42
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.2%
Sikora · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 13:10J. Rak—1711113F. Sikora—15480
WSep 6 · 10:40J. Rak—101317113F. Sikora—12111591
LSep 3 · 17:20J. Rak—611861F. Sikora—11411113
LSep 3 · 13:40J. Rak—127351F. Sikora—101111113
LAug 25 · 14:45J. Rak—9760F. Sikora—1111113
LAug 23 · 09:45J. Rak—36100F. Sikora—1111123
LAug 18 · 14:15J. Rak—312117102F. Sikora—1110711123
WAug 5 · 17:15J. Rak—1112113F. Sikora—81080
WAug 5 · 16:10J. Rak—41111113F. Sikora—118851
LJul 31 · 16:44J. Rak—116391F. Sikora—91111113
J. Rak10
WSep 6 · 12:10J. Rak2.101311113D. Sarganek1.6711860WSep 6 · 10:40F. Sikora1.5012111591J. Rak2.50101317113WSep 6 · 10:10R. Niezgoda1.5312971162J. Rak2.381011119113LSep 3 · 17:20F. Sikora1.3611411113J. Rak3.00611861WSep 3 · 16:10P. Vicherek1.83111091262J. Rak1.835121110113WSep 3 · 15:10J. Rak2.3811116133R. Niezgoda1.539411111LSep 3 · 13:40F. Sikora1.50101111113J. Rak2.50127351WSep 1 · 24:15J. Gembala2.5051070J. Rak1.501112113WAug 31 · 23:15J. Rak1.6111913113M. Zaskodny2.209111181LAug 31 · 17:15P. Vicherek1.90141177113J. Rak1.75129111182
F. Sikora10
WSep 6 · 11:40F. Sikora1.6712114113R. Niezgoda2.101091191LSep 6 · 10:40F. Sikora1.5012111591J. Rak2.50101317113WSep 6 · 09:40F. Sikora1.8311711113D. Sarganek1.83711991WSep 3 · 17:20F. Sikora1.3611411113J. Rak3.00611861WSep 3 · 15:40F. Sikora1.731111113R. Niezgoda2.007880WSep 3 · 14:40F. Sikora1.571111113P. Vicherek2.258590WSep 3 · 13:40F. Sikora1.50101111113J. Rak2.50127351WAug 25 · 17:23P. Vicherek1.658121621F. Sikora2.10111414113LAug 25 · 15:45F. Sikora1.9111651162P. Vicherek1.80611114113WAug 25 · 14:45F. Sikora1.531111113J. Rak2.389760
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