TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13053789
Played Aug 31Finished
Petr Vicherek
Home
1.90
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1412119711711118
Jonas Rak
Away
1.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:56 and never touched — 59.1% is still 59.1%
Graded at full timePetr Vicherek to win
59.1%
59.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Vicherek above · Jonas Rak below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 101 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Petr Vicherek at 59.1%
101 points played in total.
H2H Petr Vicherek 5–3 Jonas Rak Jonas Rak has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:56What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (52%)
Rak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Vicherek
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vicherek 1733 vs Rak 1703
Vicherek
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vicherek 60% vs Rak 40%
Vicherek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vicherek 60% vs Rak 40%
Vicherek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vicherek +2 · Rak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rak) · live re-read · sealed at 41% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rak form (40%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVicherek 1.90 / Rak 1.75
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rak)+1.9pp
TT Cup · #13053789
Vicherek1.90
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 57 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back27% 18 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back14% 5 of 36
Rak1.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite59% won 23 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it73% 16 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeVicherek5wins
AwayRak3wins
1 of 8 to a deciderVicherek leads 5–3, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVicherek71.4%5 of 7
AwayRakn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vicherek7Rak1n = 8Vicherek took 7 of 8
S2Vicherek3Rak5n = 8Rak took 5 of 8
S3Vicherek6Rak2n = 8Vicherek took 6 of 8
S4Vicherek3Rak2n = 5Vicherek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home338%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricVicherekRakV − RBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set71+6of 8Avg pointsper match37.932.0+5.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVicherekRakBasisWin rate · lifetime158 / 335 vs 52 / 10347.2%50.5%158 / 335 vs 52 / 103Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakVicherek 1.90/Rak 1.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vicherek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 31 · 15:45P. Vicherek—11811113J. Rak—211641
WAug 25 · 14:15P. Vicherek—1211113J. Rak—10960
WJul 17 · 15:40P. Vicherek—1111113J. Rak—5940
LJul 12 · 06:40P. Vicherek—11124121J. Rak—71411143
LJun 22 · 14:15P. Vicherek—791111102J. Rak—111179123
WJun 19 · 15:10P. Vicherek—1111113J. Rak—6830
WMar 6 · 18:14P. Vicherek—11911113J. Rak—911961
LMar 6 · 17:10P. Vicherek—117691J. Rak—91111113
P. Vicherek10
LSep 3 · 16:50R. Niezgoda1.731111133P. Vicherek2.0078110LSep 3 · 16:10P. Vicherek1.83111091262J. Rak1.835121110113LSep 3 · 14:40F. Sikora1.571111113P. Vicherek2.258590LSep 3 · 14:10R. Niezgoda1.70461111113P. Vicherek1.9111118642WAug 31 · 23:45P. Vicherek1.611313113M. Zaskodny2.20111170WAug 31 · 22:45P. Vicherek1.73118118113J. Gembala2.0041181192LAug 31 · 20:45P. Vicherek2.008880R. Kowal1.731111113LAug 31 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.731111510113P. Vicherek2.0089111252WAug 31 · 19:15R. Kowal1.7367100P. Vicherek2.001111123LAug 31 · 18:15P. Vicherek1.611091181A. Baros2.2012117113
J. Rak10
WSep 6 · 13:10J. Rak2.501711113F. Sikora1.4215480WSep 6 · 12:10J. Rak2.101311113D. Sarganek1.6711860WSep 6 · 10:40F. Sikora1.5012111591J. Rak2.50101317113WSep 6 · 10:10R. Niezgoda1.5312971162J. Rak2.381011119113LSep 3 · 17:20F. Sikora1.3611411113J. Rak3.00611861WSep 3 · 16:10P. Vicherek1.83111091262J. Rak1.835121110113WSep 3 · 15:10J. Rak2.3811116133R. Niezgoda1.539411111LSep 3 · 13:40F. Sikora1.50101111113J. Rak2.50127351WSep 1 · 24:15J. Gembala2.5051070J. Rak1.501112113WAug 31 · 23:15J. Rak1.6111913113M. Zaskodny2.209111181
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