TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13072405
Played Sep 3Finished
Filip Sikora
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116411118116––
Jonas Rak
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:48 and never touched — 58.4% is still 58.4%
Graded at full timeFilip Sikora to win
58.4%
58.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Sikora above · Jonas Rak below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 68 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Filip Sikora at 58.4%
68 points played in total.
H2H Filip Sikora 15–7 Jonas Rak Jonas Rak has won 7 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:48What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Sikora
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-7 in 22
Sikora
Correct
gap of 8 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sikora 1818 vs Rak 1685
Sikora
Correct
both rated, 133 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sikora 80% vs Rak 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sikora 80% vs Rak 60%
Sikora
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sikora +4 · Rak +2
Sikora
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Sikora) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSikora 1.36 / Rak 3.00
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Sikora)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #13072405
Sikora1.36
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 76 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it93% 42 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it75% 56 of 75
Rak3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 19 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back36% 11 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSikora7wins
AwayRak3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSikora leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSikora83.3%5 of 6
AwayRak50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sikora6Rak4n = 10Sikora took 6 of 10
S2Sikora5Rak5n = 10split evenly
S3Sikora6Rak4n = 10Sikora took 6 of 10
S4Sikora5Rak2n = 7Sikora took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSikoraRakS − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.031.1+6.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSikoraRakBasisWin rate · lifetime169 / 299 vs 54 / 10756.5%50.5%169 / 299 vs 54 / 107Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SikoraSikora 1.36/Rak 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.8%
Sikora · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sikora won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 13:40F. Sikora—101111113J. Rak—127351
WAug 25 · 14:45F. Sikora—1111113J. Rak—9760
WAug 23 · 09:45F. Sikora—1111123J. Rak—36100
WAug 18 · 14:15F. Sikora—1110711123J. Rak—312117102
LAug 5 · 17:15F. Sikora—81080J. Rak—1112113
LAug 5 · 16:10F. Sikora—118851J. Rak—41111113
WJul 31 · 16:44F. Sikora—91111113J. Rak—116391
WJul 31 · 16:10F. Sikora—11611113J. Rak—811581
WJul 29 · 17:08F. Sikora—11118113J. Rak—361181
LJul 29 · 15:40F. Sikora—8811121J. Rak—11114143
F. Sikora10
LSep 6 · 13:10J. Rak2.501711113F. Sikora1.4215480WSep 6 · 11:40F. Sikora1.6712114113R. Niezgoda2.101091191LSep 6 · 10:40F. Sikora1.5012111591J. Rak2.50101317113WSep 6 · 09:40F. Sikora1.8311711113D. Sarganek1.83711991WSep 3 · 15:40F. Sikora1.731111113R. Niezgoda2.007880WSep 3 · 14:40F. Sikora1.571111113P. Vicherek2.258590WSep 3 · 13:40F. Sikora1.50101111113J. Rak2.50127351WAug 25 · 17:23P. Vicherek1.658121621F. Sikora2.10111414113LAug 25 · 15:45F. Sikora1.9111651162P. Vicherek1.80611114113WAug 25 · 14:45F. Sikora1.531111113J. Rak2.389760
J. Rak10
WSep 6 · 13:10J. Rak2.501711113F. Sikora1.4215480WSep 6 · 12:10J. Rak2.101311113D. Sarganek1.6711860WSep 6 · 10:40F. Sikora1.5012111591J. Rak2.50101317113WSep 6 · 10:10R. Niezgoda1.5312971162J. Rak2.381011119113WSep 3 · 16:10P. Vicherek1.83111091262J. Rak1.835121110113WSep 3 · 15:10J. Rak2.3811116133R. Niezgoda1.539411111LSep 3 · 13:40F. Sikora1.50101111113J. Rak2.50127351WSep 1 · 24:15J. Gembala2.5051070J. Rak1.501112113WAug 31 · 23:15J. Rak1.6111913113M. Zaskodny2.209111181LAug 25 · 14:45F. Sikora1.531111113J. Rak2.389760
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