TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13084464
Played Sep 6Finished
Rostislav Niezgoda
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210911711119611
Jonas Rak
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:39 and never touched — 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeRostislav Niezgoda to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRostislav Niezgoda above · Jonas Rak below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 97 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Rostislav Niezgoda at 62.4%
97 points played in total.
H2H Rostislav Niezgoda 11–5 Jonas Rak Jonas Rak has won 5 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:39What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Niezgoda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-5 in 16
Niezgoda
Wrong
gap of 6 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Niezgoda 1804 vs Rak 1664
Niezgoda
Wrong
both rated, 139 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Niezgoda 40% vs Rak 60%
Rak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Niezgoda 70% vs Rak 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Niezgoda +1 · Rak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Niezgoda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNiezgoda 1.53 / Rak 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Niezgoda)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13084464
Niezgoda1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 158 of 251
Up 2–0, closes it96% 88 of 92
Up 1–0, closes it81% 117 of 144
Rak2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 21 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back36% 12 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNiezgoda7wins
AwayRak3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNiezgoda leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNiezgoda60%3 of 5
AwayRak20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Niezgoda5Rak5n = 10split evenly
S2Niezgoda4Rak6n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S3Niezgoda7Rak3n = 10Niezgoda took 7 of 10
S4Niezgoda5Rak5n = 10split evenly
S5Niezgoda3Rak0n = 3Niezgoda took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNiezgodaRakN − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.738.9+0.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNiezgodaRakBasisWin rate · lifetime290 / 497 vs 54 / 10858.4%50%290 / 497 vs 54 / 108Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NiezgodaNiezgoda 1.53/Rak 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.4%
Niezgoda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 15:10R. Niezgoda—9411111J. Rak—11116133
LAug 23 · 12:55R. Niezgoda—133961J. Rak—111111113
WAug 23 · 11:15R. Niezgoda—11511113J. Rak—911761
WAug 18 · 15:45R. Niezgoda—811114113J. Rak—11691182
WAug 5 · 13:40R. Niezgoda—511117113J. Rak—11621172
LAug 4 · 16:10R. Niezgoda—116491J. Rak—71111113
WAug 1 · 09:23R. Niezgoda—61111163J. Rak—1158141
WAug 1 · 05:45R. Niezgoda—11714113J. Rak—8111241
WJul 31 · 13:40R. Niezgoda—11711143J. Rak—8113121
WJul 16 · 17:08R. Niezgoda—711311113J. Rak—11911382
R. Niezgoda10
LSep 6 · 12:39R. Niezgoda1.67119361D. Sarganek2.1091111113LSep 6 · 11:40F. Sikora1.6712114113R. Niezgoda2.101091191WSep 6 · 11:10D. Sarganek2.20111081192R. Niezgoda1.61612117113WSep 3 · 16:50R. Niezgoda1.731111133P. Vicherek2.0078110LSep 3 · 15:40F. Sikora1.731111113R. Niezgoda2.007880LSep 3 · 15:10J. Rak2.3811116133R. Niezgoda1.539411111WSep 3 · 14:10R. Niezgoda1.70461111113P. Vicherek1.9111118642LAug 31 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.325780A. Baros2.901111113WAug 31 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.731111510113P. Vicherek2.0089111252WAug 31 · 18:45R. Niezgoda1.441181011113A. Baros2.6371112872
J. Rak10
WSep 6 · 13:10J. Rak2.501711113F. Sikora1.4215480WSep 6 · 12:10J. Rak2.101311113D. Sarganek1.6711860WSep 6 · 10:40F. Sikora1.5012111591J. Rak2.50101317113LSep 3 · 17:20F. Sikora1.3611411113J. Rak3.00611861WSep 3 · 16:10P. Vicherek1.83111091262J. Rak1.835121110113WSep 3 · 15:10J. Rak2.3811116133R. Niezgoda1.539411111LSep 3 · 13:40F. Sikora1.50101111113J. Rak2.50127351WSep 1 · 24:15J. Gembala2.5051070J. Rak1.501112113WAug 31 · 23:15J. Rak1.6111913113M. Zaskodny2.209111181LAug 31 · 17:15P. Vicherek1.90141177113J. Rak1.75129111182
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