TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13072406
Played Sep 3Finished
Rostislav Niezgoda
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171181311––––
Petr Vicherek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:49 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeRostislav Niezgoda to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRostislav Niezgoda above · Petr Vicherek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 61 set 3, 13-11 — our read held Rostislav Niezgoda at 54.3%
61 points played in total.
H2H Rostislav Niezgoda 39–31 Petr Vicherek Petr Vicherek has won 31 of their 70 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:49What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Niezgoda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-31 in 70
Niezgoda
Correct
gap of 8 in 70, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Niezgoda 1784 vs Vicherek 1677
Niezgoda
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Niezgoda 40% vs Vicherek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Niezgoda 70% vs Vicherek 40%
Niezgoda
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Niezgoda -2 · Vicherek -3
Vicherek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Niezgoda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Niezgoda form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNiezgoda 1.73 / Vicherek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Niezgoda)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13072406
Niezgoda1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 159 of 252
Up 2–0, closes it96% 88 of 92
Up 1–0, closes it81% 118 of 145
Vicherek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 56 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back25% 17 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back13% 5 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNiezgoda5wins
AwayVicherek5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNiezgoda66.7%4 of 6
AwayVicherek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Niezgoda6Vicherek4n = 10Niezgoda took 6 of 10
S2Niezgoda6Vicherek4n = 10Niezgoda took 6 of 10
S3Niezgoda5Vicherek5n = 10split evenly
S4Niezgoda2Vicherek7n = 9Vicherek took 7 of 9
S5Niezgoda3Vicherek2n = 5Niezgoda took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNiezgodaVicherekN − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.641.3+0.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNiezgodaVicherekBasisWin rate · lifetime289 / 496 vs 160 / 34358.3%46.7%289 / 496 vs 160 / 343Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NiezgodaNiezgoda 1.73/Vicherek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Niezgoda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Niezgoda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 14:10R. Niezgoda—461111113P. Vicherek—11118642
WAug 31 · 19:45R. Niezgoda—1111510113P. Vicherek—89111252
WAug 24 · 17:09R. Niezgoda—11118113P. Vicherek—691161
LAug 24 · 15:40R. Niezgoda—871161P. Vicherek—11116113
LAug 20 · 19:45R. Niezgoda—61211592P. Vicherek—1110811113
LAug 17 · 16:33R. Niezgoda—14111110102P. Vicherek—1251312123
LAug 17 · 15:40R. Niezgoda—118971P. Vicherek—91111113
WAug 13 · 19:40R. Niezgoda—1151110113P. Vicherek—61191282
WAug 12 · 21:15R. Niezgoda—1111113P. Vicherek—6790
LAug 12 · 18:40R. Niezgoda—7119101P. Vicherek—11811123
R. Niezgoda10
LSep 6 · 12:39R. Niezgoda1.67119361D. Sarganek2.1091111113LSep 6 · 11:40F. Sikora1.6712114113R. Niezgoda2.101091191WSep 6 · 11:10D. Sarganek2.20111081192R. Niezgoda1.61612117113LSep 6 · 10:10R. Niezgoda1.5312971162J. Rak2.381011119113LSep 3 · 15:40F. Sikora1.731111113R. Niezgoda2.007880LSep 3 · 15:10J. Rak2.3811116133R. Niezgoda1.539411111WSep 3 · 14:10R. Niezgoda1.70461111113P. Vicherek1.9111118642LAug 31 · 21:15R. Niezgoda1.325780A. Baros2.901111113WAug 31 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.731111510113P. Vicherek2.0089111252WAug 31 · 18:45R. Niezgoda1.441181011113A. Baros2.6371112872
P. Vicherek10
LSep 3 · 16:10P. Vicherek1.83111091262J. Rak1.835121110113LSep 3 · 14:40F. Sikora1.571111113P. Vicherek2.258590LSep 3 · 14:10R. Niezgoda1.70461111113P. Vicherek1.9111118642WAug 31 · 23:45P. Vicherek1.611313113M. Zaskodny2.20111170WAug 31 · 22:45P. Vicherek1.73118118113J. Gembala2.0041181192LAug 31 · 20:45P. Vicherek2.008880R. Kowal1.731111113LAug 31 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.731111510113P. Vicherek2.0089111252WAug 31 · 19:15R. Kowal1.7367100P. Vicherek2.001111123LAug 31 · 18:15P. Vicherek1.611091181A. Baros2.2012117113WAug 31 · 17:15P. Vicherek1.90141177113J. Rak1.75129111182
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