TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13071345
Played Sep 3Finished
Petr Vicherek
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11510129111210611
Jonas Rak
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:28 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timePetr Vicherek to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr Vicherek above · Jonas Rak below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 97 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Petr Vicherek at 54.9%
97 points played in total.
H2H Petr Vicherek 6–3 Jonas Rak Jonas Rak has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:28What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Rak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Vicherek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vicherek 1705 vs Rak 1682
Vicherek
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vicherek 40% vs Rak 60%
Rak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vicherek 50% vs Rak 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vicherek -2 · Rak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rak) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vicherek form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVicherek 1.83 / Rak 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rak)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13071345
Vicherek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Rak1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeVicherek6wins
AwayRak3wins
2 of 9 to a deciderVicherek leads 6–3, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVicherek75%6 of 8
AwayRakn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vicherek8Rak1n = 9Vicherek took 8 of 9
S2Vicherek4Rak5n = 9Rak took 5 of 9
S3Vicherek6Rak3n = 9Vicherek took 6 of 9
S4Vicherek3Rak3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home333%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricVicherekRakV − RBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set81+7of 9Avg pointsper match39.234.1+5.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVicherekRakBasisWin rate · lifetime160 / 342 vs 53 / 10646.8%50%160 / 342 vs 53 / 106Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakVicherek 1.83/Rak 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 31 · 17:15P. Vicherek—141177113J. Rak—129111182
WAug 31 · 15:45P. Vicherek—11811113J. Rak—211641
WAug 25 · 14:15P. Vicherek—1211113J. Rak—10960
WJul 17 · 15:40P. Vicherek—1111113J. Rak—5940
LJul 12 · 06:40P. Vicherek—11124121J. Rak—71411143
LJun 22 · 14:15P. Vicherek—791111102J. Rak—111179123
WJun 19 · 15:10P. Vicherek—1111113J. Rak—6830
WMar 6 · 18:14P. Vicherek—11911113J. Rak—911961
LMar 6 · 17:10P. Vicherek—117691J. Rak—91111113
P. Vicherek10
LSep 3 · 16:50R. Niezgoda1.731111133P. Vicherek2.0078110LSep 3 · 14:40F. Sikora1.571111113P. Vicherek2.258590LSep 3 · 14:10R. Niezgoda1.70461111113P. Vicherek1.9111118642WAug 31 · 23:45P. Vicherek1.611313113M. Zaskodny2.20111170WAug 31 · 22:45P. Vicherek1.73118118113J. Gembala2.0041181192LAug 31 · 20:45P. Vicherek2.008880R. Kowal1.731111113LAug 31 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.731111510113P. Vicherek2.0089111252WAug 31 · 19:15R. Kowal1.7367100P. Vicherek2.001111123LAug 31 · 18:15P. Vicherek1.611091181A. Baros2.2012117113WAug 31 · 17:15P. Vicherek1.90141177113J. Rak1.75129111182
J. Rak10
WSep 6 · 13:10J. Rak2.501711113F. Sikora1.4215480WSep 6 · 12:10J. Rak2.101311113D. Sarganek1.6711860WSep 6 · 10:40F. Sikora1.5012111591J. Rak2.50101317113WSep 6 · 10:10R. Niezgoda1.5312971162J. Rak2.381011119113LSep 3 · 17:20F. Sikora1.3611411113J. Rak3.00611861WSep 3 · 15:10J. Rak2.3811116133R. Niezgoda1.539411111LSep 3 · 13:40F. Sikora1.50101111113J. Rak2.50127351WSep 1 · 24:15J. Gembala2.5051070J. Rak1.501112113WAug 31 · 23:15J. Rak1.6111913113M. Zaskodny2.209111181LAug 31 · 17:15P. Vicherek1.90141177113J. Rak1.75129111182
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