TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13051774
Played Aug 31Finished
Petr Vicherek
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
114811118811119
Jan Gembala
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Vicherek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingPetr Vicherek above · Jan Gembala below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 92 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Petr Vicherek at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Petr Vicherek 4–6 Jan Gembala Petr Vicherek has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:05What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vicherek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Gembala
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vicherek 1692 vs Gembala 1705
Gembala
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vicherek 40% vs Gembala 60%
Gembala
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vicherek 60% vs Gembala 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vicherek -1 · Gembala +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vicherek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vicherek form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVicherek 1.73 / Gembala 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Gembala)-0.3pp
TT Cup · #13051774
Vicherek1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 43 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it73% 30 of 41
Gembala2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog54% won 31 of 57
Down 0–1, comes back30% 8 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVicherek4wins
AwayGembala6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderGembala leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVicherek50%2 of 4
AwayGembala66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vicherek4Gembala6n = 10Gembala took 6 of 10
S2Vicherek5Gembala5n = 10split evenly
S3Vicherek5Gembala5n = 10split evenly
S4Vicherek3Gembala4n = 7Gembala took 4 of 7
S5Vicherek2Gembala3n = 5Gembala took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVicherekGembalaV − GBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.139.6−0.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVicherekGembalaBasisWin rate · lifetime154 / 331 vs 192 / 35346.5%54.4%154 / 331 vs 192 / 353Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GembalaVicherek 1.73/Gembala 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vicherek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vicherek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 30 · 20:53P. Vicherek—1111123J. Gembala—28100
LJul 30 · 17:40P. Vicherek—8580J. Gembala—1111113
WJul 13 · 18:40P. Vicherek—1111117113J. Gembala—13561162
WJul 9 · 18:10P. Vicherek—61111113J. Gembala—118751
LJun 9 · 13:45P. Vicherek—61212872J. Gembala—11101011113
LJun 8 · 18:40P. Vicherek—9390J. Gembala—1111113
WFeb 9 · 20:15P. Vicherek—1111119113J. Gembala—81381152
LDec 30 · 22:00P. Vicherek—101181172J. Gembala—129116113
LDec 30 · 21:15P. Vicherek—111471142J. Gembala—916114113
LDec 21 · 07:40P. Vicherek—117871J. Gembala—71111113
P. Vicherek10
LSep 3 · 16:50R. Niezgoda1.731111133P. Vicherek2.0078110LSep 3 · 16:10P. Vicherek1.83111091262J. Rak1.835121110113LSep 3 · 14:40F. Sikora1.571111113P. Vicherek2.258590LSep 3 · 14:10R. Niezgoda1.70461111113P. Vicherek1.9111118642WAug 31 · 23:45P. Vicherek1.611313113M. Zaskodny2.20111170LAug 31 · 20:45P. Vicherek2.008880R. Kowal1.731111113LAug 31 · 19:45R. Niezgoda1.731111510113P. Vicherek2.0089111252WAug 31 · 19:15R. Kowal1.7367100P. Vicherek2.001111123LAug 31 · 18:15P. Vicherek1.611091181A. Baros2.2012117113WAug 31 · 17:15P. Vicherek1.90141177113J. Rak1.75129111182
J. Gembala10
WSep 6 · 09:25J. Gembala1.611111113D. Stusek2.206970WSep 6 · 07:40B. Moravec1.80611761J. Gembala1.9111211113WSep 6 · 07:10D. Stusek2.381210961J. Gembala1.53101211113WSep 6 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831111113F. Chaloupka1.831880WSep 1 · 17:09J. Gembala1.9112118113F. Chaloupka1.801091171WSep 1 · 15:40M. Zaskodny1.44109111162J. Gembala2.63121189113WSep 1 · 15:10D. Skulina2.254860J. Gembala1.571111113LSep 1 · 14:10J. Gembala1.831121171F. Chaloupka1.8371113113LSep 1 · 01:15M. Zaskodny1.671111113J. Gembala2.106950LSep 1 · 24:15J. Gembala2.5051070J. Rak1.501112113
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