TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13084675
Played Sep 6Finished
Jan Gembala
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
111118118––––
Frantisek Chaloupka
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:27 and never touched — 58.4% is still 58.4%
Graded at full timeJan Gembala to win
58.4%
58.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Gembala above · Frantisek Chaloupka below
Set 1 · 11-1
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 50 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Jan Gembala at 58.4%
50 points played in total.
H2H Jan Gembala 12–9 Frantisek Chaloupka Frantisek Chaloupka has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:27What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Chaloupka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-9 in 21
Gembala
Correct
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gembala 1690 vs Chaloupka 1611
Gembala
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gembala 60% vs Chaloupka 20%
Gembala
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gembala 40% vs Chaloupka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gembala +3 · Chaloupka -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Gembala) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chaloupka form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGembala 1.83 / Chaloupka 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Gembala)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13084675
Gembala1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Chaloupka1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGembala6wins
AwayChaloupka4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderGembala leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGembala80%4 of 5
AwayChaloupka60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gembala5Chaloupka5n = 10split evenly
S2Gembala7Chaloupka3n = 10Gembala took 7 of 10
S3Gembala5Chaloupka5n = 10split evenly
S4Gembala3Chaloupka2n = 5Gembala took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGembalaChaloupkaG − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.434.0+1.4per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGembalaChaloupkaBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 366 vs 258 / 49754.4%51.9%199 / 366 vs 258 / 497Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GembalaGembala 1.83/Chaloupka 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Gembala · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Gembala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 06:10J. Gembala—1111113F. Chaloupka—1880
WSep 1 · 17:09J. Gembala—12118113F. Chaloupka—1091171
LSep 1 · 14:10J. Gembala—1121171F. Chaloupka—71113113
LAug 28 · 19:40J. Gembala—8930F. Chaloupka—1111113
WAug 26 · 15:45J. Gembala—1111113F. Chaloupka—8690
LAug 16 · 10:10J. Gembala—8780F. Chaloupka—1111113
WAug 16 · 06:10J. Gembala—1111113F. Chaloupka—9750
LAug 15 · 12:38J. Gembala—71291282F. Chaloupka—11101110113
WAug 15 · 11:10J. Gembala—412149113F. Chaloupka—1110121182
WAug 13 · 16:40J. Gembala—81111113F. Chaloupka—119451
J. Gembala10
WSep 6 · 09:25J. Gembala1.611111113D. Stusek2.206970WSep 6 · 07:40B. Moravec1.80611761J. Gembala1.9111211113WSep 6 · 07:10D. Stusek2.381210961J. Gembala1.53101211113WSep 1 · 17:09J. Gembala1.9112118113F. Chaloupka1.801091171WSep 1 · 15:40M. Zaskodny1.44109111162J. Gembala2.63121189113WSep 1 · 15:10D. Skulina2.254860J. Gembala1.571111113LSep 1 · 14:10J. Gembala1.831121171F. Chaloupka1.8371113113LSep 1 · 01:15M. Zaskodny1.671111113J. Gembala2.106950LSep 1 · 24:15J. Gembala2.5051070J. Rak1.501112113LAug 31 · 22:45P. Vicherek1.73118118113J. Gembala2.0041181192
F. Chaloupka10
LSep 6 · 08:53F. Chaloupka3.0081151172B. Moravec1.36117114113LSep 6 · 08:10F. Chaloupka1.911111711112D. Stusek1.80913119133WSep 6 · 06:40B. Moravec1.4436111172F. Chaloupka2.63111159113LSep 4 · 16:39F. Chaloupka1.615131291K. Kleprlik2.20111114113LSep 4 · 15:45F. Chaloupka2.201111581J. Skvrna1.6113911113LSep 4 · 14:45F. Chaloupka1.73411148102D. Skulina2.001131211123WSep 4 · 13:45F. Chaloupka1.83111169113K. Kleprlik1.8339111172LSep 1 · 17:09J. Gembala1.9112118113F. Chaloupka1.801091171LSep 1 · 16:10F. Chaloupka1.67117581D. Skulina2.1091111113WSep 1 · 14:10J. Gembala1.831121171F. Chaloupka1.8371113113
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