TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13085209
Played Sep 6Finished
David Stusek
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12101012911611––
Jan Gembala
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:19 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeJan Gembala to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Stusek above · Jan Gembala below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 81 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Jan Gembala at 60.8%
81 points played in total.
H2H David Stusek 6–7 Jan Gembala David Stusek has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:19What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Gembala
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-7 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stusek 1573 vs Gembala 1690
Gembala
Correct
both rated, 116 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stusek 40% vs Gembala 80%
Gembala
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stusek 40% vs Gembala 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stusek +1 · Gembala +4
Gembala
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Gembala) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gembala form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStusek 2.38 / Gembala 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Gembala)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13085209
Stusek2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 16 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back19% 4 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Gembala1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 86 of 154
Up 2–0, closes it98% 51 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it78% 67 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStusek4wins
AwayGembala6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderGembala leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStusek75%3 of 4
AwayGembala83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stusek4Gembala6n = 10Gembala took 6 of 10
S2Stusek2Gembala8n = 10Gembala took 8 of 10
S3Stusek4Gembala6n = 10Gembala took 6 of 10
S4Stusek4Gembala3n = 7Stusek took 4 of 7
S5Stusek2Gembala1n = 3Stusek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStusekGembalaS − GBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.539.6−3.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStusekGembalaBasisWin rate · lifetime89 / 181 vs 199 / 36649.2%54.4%89 / 181 vs 199 / 366Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GembalaStusek 2.38/Gembala 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Gembala · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Gembala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 09:25D. Stusek—6970J. Gembala—1111113
LSep 6 · 07:10D. Stusek—1210961J. Gembala—101211113
LAug 26 · 14:45D. Stusek—7860J. Gembala—1111113
LAug 12 · 15:40D. Stusek—67111462J. Gembala—1111612113
LJun 14 · 07:45D. Stusek—6950J. Gembala—1111113
WApr 28 · 06:45D. Stusek—11611113J. Gembala—611991
WMar 31 · 18:15D. Stusek—11911113J. Gembala—811571
WFeb 19 · 19:10D. Stusek—915119113J. Gembala—111391182
LFeb 2 · 21:10D. Stusek—511871J. Gembala—11711113
WFeb 1 · 18:40D. Stusek—11101111113J. Gembala—91213462
D. Stusek10
LSep 6 · 09:25J. Gembala1.611111113D. Stusek2.206970WSep 6 · 08:10F. Chaloupka1.911111711112D. Stusek1.80913119133WSep 6 · 05:40B. Moravec1.806950D. Stusek1.911111113LAug 26 · 17:03D. Stusek3.008760F. Chaloupka1.361111113WAug 26 · 16:15D. Stusek2.25121147113B. Mrowetz1.57109111182LAug 26 · 14:45J. Gembala1.831111113D. Stusek1.837860LAug 26 · 14:15F. Chaloupka1.831111159133D. Stusek1.83781711112WAug 23 · 08:50D. Vitasek2.387870D. Stusek1.531111113LAug 23 · 07:45B. Moravec2.009111110113D. Stusek1.7311561252LAug 23 · 07:15D. Vitasek2.3811611113D. Stusek1.53711861
J. Gembala10
WSep 6 · 09:25J. Gembala1.611111113D. Stusek2.206970WSep 6 · 07:40B. Moravec1.80611761J. Gembala1.9111211113WSep 6 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831111113F. Chaloupka1.831880WSep 1 · 17:09J. Gembala1.9112118113F. Chaloupka1.801091171WSep 1 · 15:40M. Zaskodny1.44109111162J. Gembala2.63121189113WSep 1 · 15:10D. Skulina2.254860J. Gembala1.571111113LSep 1 · 14:10J. Gembala1.831121171F. Chaloupka1.8371113113LSep 1 · 01:15M. Zaskodny1.671111113J. Gembala2.106950LSep 1 · 24:15J. Gembala2.5051070J. Rak1.501112113WAug 26 · 14:45J. Gembala1.831111113D. Stusek1.837860
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