TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13084432
Played Sep 6Finished
Borek Moravec
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611911511––––
David Stusek
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeBorek Moravec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingBorek Moravec above · David Stusek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 53 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Borek Moravec at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Borek Moravec 3–1 David Stusek David Stusek has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:30What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Moravec
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Moravec
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1821 vs Stusek 1570
Moravec
Wrong
both rated, 251 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 80% vs Stusek 40%
Moravec
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 70% vs Stusek 30%
Moravec
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec +4 · Stusek -1
Moravec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Moravec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stusek form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.80 / Stusek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Moravec)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13084432
Moravec1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite73% won 112 of 153
Up 2–0, closes it100% 51 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it88% 79 of 90
Stusek1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 17 of 40
Down 0–1, comes back20% 4 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMoravec3wins
AwayStusek1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderMoravec leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravecn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayStusek33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec1Stusek3n = 4Stusek took 3 of 4
S2Moravec2Stusek2n = 4split evenly
S3Moravec4Stusek0n = 4Moravec took 4 of 4
S4Moravec3Stusek1n = 4Moravec took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricMoravecStusekM − SBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match45.239.0+6.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecStusekBasisWin rate · lifetime252 / 437 vs 87 / 17757.7%49.2%252 / 437 vs 87 / 177Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.340.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.80/Stusek 1.91
Miss
What we said
54.3%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Stusek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 23 · 07:45B. Moravec—9111110113D. Stusek—11561252
WJun 18 · 17:09B. Moravec—91112113D. Stusek—1151061
WJun 18 · 15:40B. Moravec—11411113D. Stusek—811481
LFeb 10 · 14:40B. Moravec—512111292D. Stusek—1114810113
B. Moravec10
WSep 6 · 08:53F. Chaloupka3.0081151172B. Moravec1.36117114113LSep 6 · 07:40B. Moravec1.80611761J. Gembala1.9111211113LSep 6 · 06:40B. Moravec1.4436111172F. Chaloupka2.63111159113WAug 30 · 09:19B. Moravec1.44119911113J. Skvrna2.6361111462WAug 30 · 07:40B. Moravec1.44831112113F. Chaloupka2.63111181032WAug 30 · 06:40B. Moravec1.44111111113J. Skvrna2.63139431WAug 30 · 05:40B. Moravec1.50117119113J. Skalicky2.5051121172LAug 25 · 16:55J. Rak—116113113B. Moravec—61141182LAug 25 · 16:15J. Rak1.8311119113B. Moravec1.83691171WAug 25 · 15:15B. Moravec2.20114117113P. Vicherek1.6191151192
D. Stusek10
LSep 6 · 09:25J. Gembala1.611111113D. Stusek2.206970WSep 6 · 08:10F. Chaloupka1.911111711112D. Stusek1.80913119133LSep 6 · 07:10D. Stusek2.381210961J. Gembala1.53101211113LAug 26 · 17:03D. Stusek3.008760F. Chaloupka1.361111113WAug 26 · 16:15D. Stusek2.25121147113B. Mrowetz1.57109111182LAug 26 · 14:45J. Gembala1.831111113D. Stusek1.837860LAug 26 · 14:15F. Chaloupka1.831111159133D. Stusek1.83781711112WAug 23 · 08:50D. Vitasek2.387870D. Stusek1.531111113LAug 23 · 07:45B. Moravec2.009111110113D. Stusek1.7311561252LAug 23 · 07:15D. Vitasek2.3811611113D. Stusek1.53711861
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