TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13044900
Played Aug 30Finished
Borek Moravec
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8113111181210113
Frantisek Chaloupka
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:46 and never touched — 68.1% is still 68.1%
Graded at full timeBorek Moravec to win
68.1%
68.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingBorek Moravec above · Frantisek Chaloupka below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 88 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Borek Moravec at 68.1%
88 points played in total.
H2H Borek Moravec 34–18 Frantisek Chaloupka Frantisek Chaloupka has won 18 of their 52 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:46What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-18 in 52
Moravec
Correct
gap of 16 in 52, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1821 vs Chaloupka 1674
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 147 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 60% vs Chaloupka 40%
Moravec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 70% vs Chaloupka 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec +2 · Chaloupka -3
Chaloupka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Moravec) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.44 / Chaloupka 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Moravec)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13044900
Moravec1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite72% won 115 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it96% 52 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it86% 81 of 94
Chaloupka2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 53 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back31% 18 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoravec9wins
AwayChaloupka1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMoravec leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec85.7%6 of 7
AwayChaloupka0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec7Chaloupka3n = 10Moravec took 7 of 10
S2Moravec5Chaloupka5n = 10split evenly
S3Moravec7Chaloupka3n = 10Moravec took 7 of 10
S4Moravec6Chaloupka1n = 7Moravec took 6 of 7
S5Moravec3Chaloupka0n = 3Moravec took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoravecChaloupkaM − CBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.136.2+4.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecChaloupkaBasisWin rate · lifetime252 / 437 vs 254 / 48557.7%52.4%252 / 437 vs 254 / 485Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.44/Chaloupka 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.9%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 07:40B. Moravec—831112113F. Chaloupka—111181032
WAug 21 · 15:40B. Moravec—711811113F. Chaloupka—11711782
WAug 16 · 06:40B. Moravec—111112113F. Chaloupka—961491
WAug 13 · 13:40B. Moravec—111211113F. Chaloupka—814751
WAug 8 · 07:40B. Moravec—11912113F. Chaloupka—8111091
WAug 7 · 17:10B. Moravec—1511113F. Chaloupka—13580
WAug 7 · 15:40B. Moravec—771211113F. Chaloupka—111110762
WAug 5 · 15:45B. Moravec—1111113F. Chaloupka—8680
WAug 3 · 17:13B. Moravec—1112123F. Chaloupka—910100
LAug 3 · 15:40B. Moravec—124881F. Chaloupka—101111113
B. Moravec10
WSep 6 · 08:53F. Chaloupka3.0081151172B. Moravec1.36117114113LSep 6 · 07:40B. Moravec1.80611761J. Gembala1.9111211113LSep 6 · 06:40B. Moravec1.4436111172F. Chaloupka2.63111159113LSep 6 · 05:40B. Moravec1.806950D. Stusek1.911111113WAug 30 · 09:19B. Moravec1.44119911113J. Skvrna2.6361111462WAug 30 · 06:40B. Moravec1.44111111113J. Skvrna2.63139431WAug 30 · 05:40B. Moravec1.50117119113J. Skalicky2.5051121172LAug 25 · 16:55J. Rak—116113113B. Moravec—61141182LAug 25 · 16:15J. Rak1.8311119113B. Moravec1.83691171WAug 25 · 15:15B. Moravec2.20114117113P. Vicherek1.6191151192
F. Chaloupka10
LSep 6 · 08:53F. Chaloupka3.0081151172B. Moravec1.36117114113LSep 6 · 08:10F. Chaloupka1.911111711112D. Stusek1.80913119133WSep 6 · 06:40B. Moravec1.4436111172F. Chaloupka2.63111159113LSep 6 · 06:10J. Gembala1.831111113F. Chaloupka1.831880LSep 4 · 16:39F. Chaloupka1.615131291K. Kleprlik2.20111114113LSep 4 · 15:45F. Chaloupka2.201111581J. Skvrna1.6113911113LSep 4 · 14:45F. Chaloupka1.73411148102D. Skulina2.001131211123WSep 4 · 13:45F. Chaloupka1.83111169113K. Kleprlik1.8339111172LSep 1 · 17:09J. Gembala1.9112118113F. Chaloupka1.801091171LSep 1 · 16:10F. Chaloupka1.67117581D. Skulina2.1091111113
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