TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13043600
Played Aug 30Finished
Borek Moravec
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115711112911117
Jiri Skalicky
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:45 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeBorek Moravec to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingBorek Moravec above · Jiri Skalicky below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 85 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Borek Moravec at 55.8%
85 points played in total.
H2H Borek Moravec 9–3 Jiri Skalicky Jiri Skalicky has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:45What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-3 in 12
Moravec
Correct
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1780 vs Skalicky 1622
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 158 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 40% vs Skalicky 80%
Skalicky
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 70% vs Skalicky 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec -2 · Skalicky +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Moravec) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skalicky form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.50 / Skalicky 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Moravec)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13043600
Moravec1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite72% won 111 of 155
Up 2–0, closes it96% 52 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it86% 79 of 92
Skalicky2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 19 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back15% 4 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoravec8wins
AwaySkalicky2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMoravec leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec100%7 of 7
AwaySkalicky66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec7Skalicky3n = 10Moravec took 7 of 10
S2Moravec5Skalicky5n = 10split evenly
S3Moravec8Skalicky2n = 10Moravec took 8 of 10
S4Moravec5Skalicky2n = 7Moravec took 5 of 7
S5Moravec2Skalicky1n = 3Moravec took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoravecSkalickyM − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.935.0+6.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecSkalickyBasisWin rate · lifetime248 / 433 vs 97 / 18657.3%52.2%248 / 433 vs 97 / 186Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.50/Skalicky 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 15 · 09:10B. Moravec—117511113J. Skalicky—61111992
WAug 15 · 07:40B. Moravec—161111113J. Skalicky—184841
WJul 19 · 07:45B. Moravec—1118133J. Skalicky—516110
WJul 18 · 07:10B. Moravec—1113133J. Skalicky—411110
LJul 5 · 06:10B. Moravec—77111392J. Skalicky—1111811113
LJun 27 · 06:45B. Moravec—991181J. Skalicky—11119113
WJun 20 · 05:45B. Moravec—1111113J. Skalicky—0990
WMay 17 · 06:10B. Moravec—111185123J. Skalicky—351111102
WApr 11 · 08:10B. Moravec—11711113J. Skalicky—311871
WMar 21 · 08:40B. Moravec—11811123J. Skalicky—5115101
B. Moravec10
WSep 6 · 08:53F. Chaloupka3.0081151172B. Moravec1.36117114113LSep 6 · 07:40B. Moravec1.80611761J. Gembala1.9111211113LSep 6 · 06:40B. Moravec1.4436111172F. Chaloupka2.63111159113LSep 6 · 05:40B. Moravec1.806950D. Stusek1.911111113WAug 30 · 09:19B. Moravec1.44119911113J. Skvrna2.6361111462WAug 30 · 07:40B. Moravec1.44831112113F. Chaloupka2.63111181032WAug 30 · 06:40B. Moravec1.44111111113J. Skvrna2.63139431LAug 25 · 16:55J. Rak—116113113B. Moravec—61141182LAug 25 · 16:15J. Rak1.8311119113B. Moravec1.83691171WAug 25 · 15:15B. Moravec2.20114117113P. Vicherek1.6191151192
J. Skalicky10
LAug 30 · 08:49J. Skalicky1.836124101F. Chaloupka1.83111011123LAug 30 · 08:10J. Skvrna1.67115911113J. Skalicky2.1091111652WAug 30 · 07:10J. Skalicky1.8311119113F. Chaloupka1.83791161WAug 29 · 09:19J. Skalicky1.7312711113A. Cizek2.001011451WAug 29 · 07:45J. Skalicky1.911111113D. Jr1.808480LAug 29 · 06:45J. Skalicky1.61771181A. Cizek2.2011114113WAug 29 · 05:45J. Skalicky1.53561111113D. Pawlik2.3811113782WAug 22 · 21:08J. Krupnik2.50101111892J. Skalicky1.50127811113WAug 22 · 19:40J. Skalicky1.836111011133F. Chaloupka1.83116129112LAug 22 · 18:40J. Skalicky1.67611111162R. Sedlacek2.10116136113
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