TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13037997
Played Aug 29Finished
Jiri Skalicky
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511611113117118
Dominik Pawlik
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:03 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeJiri Skalicky to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Skalicky above · Dominik Pawlik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 84 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Jiri Skalicky at 58.9%
84 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Skalicky 1–0 Dominik Pawlik Dominik Pawlik has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:03What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Skalicky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Skalicky 1626 vs Pawlik 1544
Skalicky
Correct
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skalicky 80% vs Pawlik 40%
Skalicky
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skalicky 40% vs Pawlik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skalicky +2 · Pawlik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Skalicky) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skalicky form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkalicky 1.53 / Pawlik 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Skalicky)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13037997
Skalicky1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 40 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it75% 24 of 32
Pawlik2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 55 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back20% 11 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSkalicky1wins
AwayPawlik0wins
Skalicky leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSkalickyPawlikS − PBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.022.0+11.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkalickyPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime94 / 182 vs 211 / 41951.7%50.4%94 / 182 vs 211 / 419Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkalickySkalicky 1.53/Pawlik 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Skalicky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skalicky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WFeb 1 · 16:15J. Skalicky—1111113D. Pawlik—8590
J. Skalicky10
LAug 30 · 08:49J. Skalicky1.836124101F. Chaloupka1.83111011123LAug 30 · 08:10J. Skvrna1.67115911113J. Skalicky2.1091111652WAug 30 · 07:10J. Skalicky1.8311119113F. Chaloupka1.83791161LAug 30 · 05:40B. Moravec1.50117119113J. Skalicky2.5051121172WAug 29 · 09:19J. Skalicky1.7312711113A. Cizek2.001011451WAug 29 · 07:45J. Skalicky1.911111113D. Jr1.808480LAug 29 · 06:45J. Skalicky1.61771181A. Cizek2.2011114113WAug 22 · 21:08J. Krupnik2.50101111892J. Skalicky1.50127811113WAug 22 · 19:40J. Skalicky1.836111011133F. Chaloupka1.83116129112LAug 22 · 18:40J. Skalicky1.67611111162R. Sedlacek2.10116136113
D. Pawlik10
WSep 7 · 08:40D. Pawlik1.831171110113J. Przybyla1.8321161292WSep 7 · 07:40B. Mrowetz1.5011811772D. Pawlik2.50911711113WSep 7 · 07:10J. Przybyla1.801713119112D. Pawlik1.911911811133LSep 7 · 06:10D. Pawlik1.731411391L. Lasota2.0016811113LSep 6 · 08:50L. Slavik1.611613113D. Pawlik2.20141110LSep 6 · 08:15D. Pawlik2.001251431D. Jr1.73141112113LSep 6 · 06:45T. Krenek1.73119119133D. Pawlik2.00611911112LSep 6 · 06:15L. Slavik1.61111195113D. Pawlik2.2088111182WSep 5 · 08:44J. Przybyla1.7363111182D. Pawlik2.00111189113LSep 5 · 08:15D. Pawlik1.839580J. Przybyla1.831111113
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