TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13089602
Played Sep 7Finished
Jan Przybyla
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
171913111189111113
Dominik Pawlik
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Przybyla to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Przybyla above · Dominik Pawlik below
Set 1 · 17-19
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 123 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Jan Przybyla at 54.0%
123 points played in total.
H2H Jan Przybyla 5–9 Dominik Pawlik Jan Przybyla has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:42What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Przybyla
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-9 in 14
Pawlik
Correct
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Przybyla 1503 vs Pawlik 1525
Pawlik
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Przybyla 20% vs Pawlik 0%
Przybyla
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Przybyla 20% vs Pawlik 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Przybyla -2 · Pawlik -5
Pawlik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pawlik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pawlik form (0%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrzybyla 1.80 / Pawlik 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pawlik)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13089602
Przybyla1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite52% won 54 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it82% 28 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it70% 40 of 57
Pawlik1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog46% won 57 of 125
Down 0–1, comes back20% 13 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePrzybyla5wins
AwayPawlik5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrzybyla100%4 of 4
AwayPawlik83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Przybyla4Pawlik6n = 10Pawlik took 6 of 10
S2Przybyla6Pawlik4n = 10Przybyla took 6 of 10
S3Przybyla7Pawlik3n = 10Przybyla took 7 of 10
S4Przybyla2Pawlik2n = 4split evenly
S5Przybyla1Pawlik2n = 3Pawlik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPrzybylaPawlikPrzybyla − PawlikBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.936.90.0per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrzybylaPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime219 / 421 vs 224 / 45052%49.8%219 / 421 vs 224 / 450Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikPrzybyla 1.80/Pawlik 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 07:10J. Przybyla—1713119112D. Pawlik—1911811133
LSep 5 · 08:44J. Przybyla—63111182D. Pawlik—111189113
WSep 5 · 08:15J. Przybyla—1111113D. Pawlik—9580
WAug 31 · 07:45J. Przybyla—1211113D. Pawlik—10690
WAug 28 · 07:15J. Przybyla—8111211113D. Pawlik—111310972
LJul 24 · 06:15J. Przybyla—1111861D. Pawlik—13811113
LJul 2 · 16:15J. Przybyla—11480D. Pawlik—1311113
LJun 20 · 08:40J. Przybyla—10770D. Pawlik—1211113
WJun 20 · 06:40J. Przybyla—1111113D. Pawlik—9590
WMay 18 · 09:25J. Przybyla—1111113D. Pawlik—8890
J. Przybyla10
LSep 7 · 08:10L. Lasota1.5711711113J. Przybyla2.25311691LSep 7 · 05:40B. Mrowetz1.361111113J. Przybyla3.007580LSep 5 · 08:44J. Przybyla1.7363111182D. Pawlik2.00111189113WSep 5 · 08:15D. Pawlik1.839580J. Przybyla1.831111113LSep 5 · 07:15J. Przybyla2.25811821B. Mrowetz1.5711511113LSep 5 · 05:45M. Macurak1.5712119113J. Przybyla2.251091181WSep 4 · 12:40D. Jr1.4499100J. Przybyla2.631111123LSep 4 · 12:10D. Jr1.801311113J. Przybyla1.9111980LSep 4 · 11:10J. Przybyla2.20611981J. Krupnik1.6111711113LSep 4 · 09:40R. Sedlacek1.44911911113J. Przybyla2.6311911972
D. Pawlik10
WSep 7 · 07:40B. Mrowetz1.5011811772D. Pawlik2.50911711113LSep 7 · 06:10D. Pawlik1.731411391L. Lasota2.0016811113LSep 6 · 08:50L. Slavik1.611613113D. Pawlik2.20141110LSep 6 · 08:15D. Pawlik2.001251431D. Jr1.73141112113LSep 6 · 06:45T. Krenek1.73119119133D. Pawlik2.00611911112LSep 6 · 06:15L. Slavik1.61111195113D. Pawlik2.2088111182WSep 5 · 08:44J. Przybyla1.7363111182D. Pawlik2.00111189113LSep 5 · 08:15D. Pawlik1.839580J. Przybyla1.831111113LSep 5 · 06:45M. Macurak1.53511119113D. Pawlik2.3811821112WSep 5 · 06:15B. Mrowetz1.4411116982D. Pawlik2.63831111113
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